{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5db80f2c-f20b-462a-848f-9d8eca63a96f", "symbol": "DAX", "name": "GLOBAL X DAX GERMANY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.272, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 43.649, "architecture_energy": 49.125, "architecture_maturity": 34.419, "architecture_confidence": 46.672, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.57, "rotation_up": 57.82, "upward_expansion": 54.92, "deceleration": 27.61, "rotation_down": 24.97, "downward_expansion": 22.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.559293, 45.005752, 44.674088, 44.50159 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 47.145, "trend_reference": 44.677038, "distance_from_trend": 0.05524, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.259259, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.265323, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.851401, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.013252, "excess_performance": -0.174202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05524, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000404, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.265323, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024258, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078514, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090386, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.013252, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.25649, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 187169, "relative_activity": 0.857839, "balance": 1.25649, "dry_up": 0.786697, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033462, "annualized_volatility": 0.221782, "from_high_reference": -0.011635, "from_low_reference": 0.168401 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.677038, "fair_value_reference": 37.259259, "structural_low": 40.35, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.022114, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.005154, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.102328, "worst_return": -0.04088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.034988, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.030944, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.154894, "worst_return": -0.062133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.043892, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.094825, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.328558, "worst_return": -0.131519, "sufficient": false }, { 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44.251428, 44.263014, 44.150222, 44.30605 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.095, "volume": 165074, "typical_volume": 237394.4, "trend": 44.663038, "fair_value": 37.021319, "relative_strength": -9.528674, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.979885, "energy": 12.110439, "activity_lines": [ 44.191177, 44.241064, 44.180304, 44.26595 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.835, "volume": 202093, "typical_volume": 222486.85, "trend": 44.664538, "fair_value": 37.135783, "relative_strength": -6.182752, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.447096, "energy": 19.875039, "activity_lines": [ 44.737587, 44.516495, 44.373089, 44.34156 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.145, "volume": 187169, "typical_volume": 218186.7, "trend": 44.677038, "fair_value": 37.259259, "relative_strength": -7.851401, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.64894, "energy": 49.124557, "activity_lines": [ 45.559293, 45.005752, 44.674088, 44.50159 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }