{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5dbf038f-4da8-4873-8f62-be9961c50a7a", "symbol": "DESK", "name": "VANECK ETF TR OFFICE & COML REIT ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.108, "architecture_energy": 60.795, "architecture_maturity": 52.89, "architecture_confidence": 59.891, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.5, "rotation_up": 53.49, "upward_expansion": 82.28, "deceleration": 70.32, "rotation_down": 25.59, "downward_expansion": 11.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.306133, 42.045919, 40.302524, 38.765491 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 41.6324, "trend_reference": 37.26248, "distance_from_trend": 0.117274, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.258552, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.148209, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.645585, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.135563, "excess_performance": 0.009938, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.117274, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043974, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.148209, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.108419, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016456, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090677, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.135563, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.318939, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 307809, "relative_activity": 5.165313, "balance": 0.318939, "dry_up": 3.633728, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04114, "annualized_volatility": 0.21941, "from_high_reference": -0.052086, "from_low_reference": 0.327001 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.26248, "fair_value_reference": 36.258552, "structural_low": 31.373291, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.018334, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.05513, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.087542, "worst_return": -0.061952, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.120618, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.182947, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.120618, "worst_return": -0.120618, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.187037, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.231796, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.187037, "worst_return": -0.187037, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-31", "close": 42.26, "volume": 233506, "typical_volume": 44460.6, "trend": 37.108548, "fair_value": 36.222726, "relative_strength": 3.176888, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.374433, "energy": 64.318086, "activity_lines": [ 42.621333, 41.957782, 39.952463, 38.47363 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.6324, "volume": 307809, "typical_volume": 59591.55, "trend": 37.26248, "fair_value": 36.258552, "relative_strength": -1.645585, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.108312, "energy": 60.794864, "activity_lines": [ 42.306133, 42.045919, 40.302524, 38.765491 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }