{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5dc0f62d-a289-48c1-a144-d4fe1909f1c7", "symbol": "AUUSI", "name": "UBS Gold ETF USD acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.996, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.259, "architecture_energy": 40.897, "architecture_maturity": 66.486, "architecture_confidence": 66.049, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.74, "rotation_up": 29.59, "upward_expansion": 20.91, "deceleration": 64.06, "rotation_down": 41.17, "downward_expansion": 68.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 107.302667, 106.746545, 109.282381, 112.148215 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 112.300003, "trend_reference": 115.815334, "distance_from_trend": -0.030353, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 83.946256, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.337761, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.243504, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.083116, "excess_performance": -0.165999, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030353, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005718, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.337761, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134886, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.082435, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164621, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.083116, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.454174, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20889, "relative_activity": 0.531971, "balance": 0.454174, "dry_up": 0.629253, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032495, "annualized_volatility": 0.21842, "from_high_reference": -0.175235, "from_low_reference": 0.309468 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 115.815334, "fair_value_reference": 83.946256, "structural_low": 102.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.009825, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.016388, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.035262, "worst_return": -0.044118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.019866, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.000782, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.051948, "worst_return": -0.009926, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.016669, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.009009, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.023596, "worst_return": 0.009743, "sufficient": false }, { 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"relative_strength": -11.916393, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.677666, "energy": 62.890474, "activity_lines": [ 105.318664, 106.471271, 110.106666, 113.140043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 104.400002, "volume": 32363, "typical_volume": 46545.85, "trend": 115.934667, "fair_value": 83.572602, "relative_strength": -13.448552, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.68823, "energy": 64.052904, "activity_lines": [ 104.954666, 105.807635, 109.263428, 112.38271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 112.300003, "volume": 20889, "typical_volume": 39267.2, "trend": 115.815334, "fair_value": 83.946256, "relative_strength": -8.243504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.258966, "energy": 40.897245, "activity_lines": [ 107.302667, 106.746545, 109.282381, 112.148215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }