{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5dc4cb6d-5bc7-49bd-af90-23cf3dc4ff9a", "symbol": "W05", "name": "Wing Tai Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.536, "architecture_energy": 14.532, "architecture_maturity": 18.162, "architecture_confidence": 58.281, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.43, "rotation_up": 27.1, "upward_expansion": 18.98, "deceleration": 39.72, "rotation_down": 29.15, "downward_expansion": 55.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.578, 1.574182, 1.57419, 1.586022 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.58, "trend_reference": 1.602, "distance_from_trend": -0.013733, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.34988, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.170474, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.321143, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.030675, "excess_performance": -0.18551, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013733, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028902, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.170474, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02423, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123211, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130545, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030675, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.414526, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 616400, "relative_activity": 1.015603, "balance": 1.414526, "dry_up": 0.827525, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02483, "annualized_volatility": 0.130058, "from_high_reference": -0.102273, "from_low_reference": 0.203669 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.602, "fair_value_reference": 1.34988, "structural_low": 1.52, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.008783, "positive_rate": 0.1875, "directional_follow_through": 0.1875, "median_excess_return": -0.006564, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.071823, "worst_return": -0.05303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.04559, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.060312, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.082399, "worst_return": -0.080641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.033333, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.055877, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.073812, "worst_return": -0.143646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.046592, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.085952, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.060969, "worst_return": -0.128889, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.007692, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075862, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082192, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054687, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037549, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.016129, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.243421, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038961, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025806, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.237221, "volume": 537600, "typical_volume": 703105.0, "trend": 1.364944, "fair_value": 1.517062, "relative_strength": -8.399755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.800676, "energy": 21.022806, "activity_lines": [ 1.563333, 1.568182, 1.589333, 1.591204 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1.55, "volume": 270600, "typical_volume": 1324560.0, "trend": 1.574333, "fair_value": 1.339903, "relative_strength": -6.746184, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.462935, "energy": 26.883501, "activity_lines": [ 1.56, 1.562727, 1.583619, 1.589892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.56, "volume": 209500, "typical_volume": 1067545.0, "trend": 1.579, "fair_value": 1.341321, "relative_strength": -6.960787, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.091714, "energy": 18.772256, "activity_lines": [ 1.560667, 1.560727, 1.579238, 1.588968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.59, "volume": 695200, "typical_volume": 1047230.0, "trend": 1.584333, "fair_value": 1.342931, "relative_strength": -8.945578, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.415357, "energy": 10.200563, "activity_lines": [ 1.572, 1.565091, 1.578333, 1.589677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.58, "volume": 352300, "typical_volume": 916045.0, "trend": 1.589333, "fair_value": 1.344477, "relative_strength": -10.04635, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.144805, "energy": 6.966589, "activity_lines": [ 1.576, 1.568, 1.577, 1.589398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.58, "volume": 632700, "typical_volume": 724705.0, "trend": 1.594, "fair_value": 1.346142, "relative_strength": -11.069685, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.088687, "energy": 17.258787, "activity_lines": [ 1.577333, 1.571091, 1.576143, 1.588796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.57, "volume": 407600, "typical_volume": 632665.0, "trend": 1.599, "fair_value": 1.34792, "relative_strength": -12.040708, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.891483, "energy": 18.52802, "activity_lines": [ 1.576667, 1.571818, 1.574524, 1.587247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.58, "volume": 616400, "typical_volume": 606930.0, "trend": 1.602, "fair_value": 1.34988, "relative_strength": -12.321143, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.535747, "energy": 14.531652, "activity_lines": [ 1.578, 1.574182, 1.57419, 1.586022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }