{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5dc66226-0be0-4160-897e-f2caf5625319", "symbol": "ZQM", "name": "SoilbuildConstr", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.496, "architecture_energy": 85.113, "architecture_maturity": 37.712, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.46, "rotation_up": 21.95, "upward_expansion": 19.78, "deceleration": 38.55, "rotation_down": 70.64, "downward_expansion": 97.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.627, 0.650909, 0.720977, 0.780355 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.61, "trend_reference": 0.848638, "distance_from_trend": -0.281201, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.367319, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.660681, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.297052, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.378979, "excess_performance": -0.533814, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.281201, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048032, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.660681, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.206017, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.362971, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.593297, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.378979, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.327278, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1006800, "relative_activity": 0.554447, "balance": 0.327278, "dry_up": 0.402384, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088782, "annualized_volatility": 0.377234, "from_high_reference": -0.454581, "from_low_reference": 0.654206 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.848638, "fair_value_reference": 0.367319, "structural_low": 0.595, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.022213, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.181818, "worst_return": -0.327582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.018828, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029083, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.164887, "worst_return": -0.362066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.081081, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.111682, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 2.023498, "worst_return": -0.340534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.112355, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099998, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018986, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.070062, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 2.889235, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", 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"volume": 552200, "typical_volume": 2343390.0, "trend": 0.868474, "fair_value": 0.356785, "relative_strength": -31.770324, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.856106, "energy": 91.650961, "activity_lines": [ 0.657667, 0.696727, 0.776979, 0.825978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.645, "volume": 749500, "typical_volume": 2052950.0, "trend": 0.862744, "fair_value": 0.360414, "relative_strength": -30.911437, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.641312, "energy": 86.982274, "activity_lines": [ 0.646667, 0.681909, 0.758636, 0.81156 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.625, "volume": 614200, "typical_volume": 1846900.0, "trend": 0.855941, "fair_value": 0.363915, "relative_strength": -33.767515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.35479, "energy": 86.293692, "activity_lines": [ 0.637333, 0.666455, 0.739693, 0.796222 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.61, "volume": 1006800, "typical_volume": 1815865.0, "trend": 0.848638, "fair_value": 0.367319, "relative_strength": -36.297052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.495867, "energy": 85.113004, "activity_lines": [ 0.627, 0.650909, 0.720977, 0.780355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }