{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5dc8c22e-3011-49fa-80c9-3397ea56cb40", "symbol": "EMQQ", "name": "THE EMERGING MARKETS INTERNET ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 95.323, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 11.978, "architecture_energy": 24.633, "architecture_maturity": 14.96, "architecture_confidence": 59.009, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.61, "rotation_up": 45.22, "upward_expansion": 34.02, "deceleration": 44.31, "rotation_down": 14.2, "downward_expansion": 42.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.831753, 33.054233, 32.866931, 33.2338 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 34.765, "trend_reference": 34.296327, "distance_from_trend": 0.013665, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.698891, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.001905, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.212398, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.095133, "excess_performance": -0.220758, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013665, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076893, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.001905, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010008, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.182124, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050202, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.095133, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.937884, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 210348, "relative_activity": 0.884269, "balance": 0.937884, "dry_up": 0.718574, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039239, "annualized_volatility": 0.234826, "from_high_reference": -0.237488, "from_low_reference": 0.158833 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.296327, "fair_value_reference": 34.698891, "structural_low": 30.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.011933, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.022824, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.080772, "worst_return": -0.143631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.023012, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.059658, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.043844, "worst_return": -0.182766, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.026188, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.095287, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.15372, "worst_return": -0.088316, "sufficient": 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{ "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.003, "volume": 146621, "typical_volume": 276750.05, "trend": 35.0178, "fair_value": 34.637744, "relative_strength": -20.803474, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.983372, "energy": 28.536376, "activity_lines": [ 32.452413, 32.143958, 32.593227, 33.416797 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.29, "volume": 171973, "typical_volume": 252548.25, "trend": 34.74316, "fair_value": 34.64354, "relative_strength": -21.492263, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.346782, "energy": 22.721512, "activity_lines": [ 32.517193, 32.180353, 32.534446, 33.24081 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.38, "volume": 154789, "typical_volume": 241090.15, "trend": 34.510493, "fair_value": 34.666676, "relative_strength": -16.81357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.115504, "energy": 16.813363, "activity_lines": [ 33.23464, 32.600565, 32.683808, 33.217381 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.765, "volume": 210348, "typical_volume": 237877.85, "trend": 34.296327, "fair_value": 34.698891, "relative_strength": -18.212398, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 11.978261, "energy": 24.632671, "activity_lines": [ 33.831753, 33.054233, 32.866931, 33.2338 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }