{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5dd1e8ac-426d-4af6-85f2-ab0cd5e25ac2", "symbol": "DDEC", "name": "FT VEST U.S. EQUITY DEEP BUFFER ETF - DECEMBER", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 52.439, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.719, "architecture_energy": 81.12, "architecture_maturity": 40.851, "architecture_confidence": 81.609, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.7, "rotation_up": 67.16, "upward_expansion": 92.13, "deceleration": 47.24, "rotation_down": 24.41, "downward_expansion": 16.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.783173, 47.574202, 47.242037, 46.736904 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 48.23, "trend_reference": 46.165213, "distance_from_trend": 0.044726, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.548803, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.189431, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.000563, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.063272, "excess_performance": -0.062353, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044726, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019982, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.189431, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001257, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050006, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000479, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063272, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.270328, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34934, "relative_activity": 0.617839, "balance": 3.270328, "dry_up": 0.786819, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00883, "annualized_volatility": 0.062082, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.135893 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.165213, "fair_value_reference": 40.548803, "structural_low": 43.4801, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.011276, "positive_rate": 0.789474, "directional_follow_through": 0.789474, "median_excess_return": -0.005104, "regime_survival": 0.868421, "best_return": 0.02687, "worst_return": -0.032892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.029426, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.016348, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.054584, "worst_return": -0.005474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.069265, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.045086, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.09201, "worst_return": 0.012756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 47.65, "volume": 44995, "typical_volume": 60023.85, "trend": 45.83429, "fair_value": 40.197465, "relative_strength": -4.338089, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.017869, "energy": 80.206032, "activity_lines": [ 47.347393, 47.233284, 46.70961, 46.286162 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.4716, "volume": 22220, "typical_volume": 58107.7, "trend": 45.91701, "fair_value": 40.283465, "relative_strength": -3.088024, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.339881, "energy": 79.700118, "activity_lines": [ 47.414987, 47.293413, 46.838864, 46.391795 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.38, "volume": 31687, "typical_volume": 57211.15, "trend": 45.986677, "fair_value": 40.368337, "relative_strength": -2.610202, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.723705, "energy": 76.673226, "activity_lines": [ 47.426507, 47.324858, 46.948815, 46.486181 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.7161, "volume": 89113, "typical_volume": 58676.45, "trend": 46.073213, "fair_value": 40.457008, "relative_strength": -2.859679, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.287633, "energy": 78.438378, "activity_lines": [ 47.544727, 47.408685, 47.078684, 46.597757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.23, "volume": 34934, "typical_volume": 56542.25, "trend": 46.165213, "fair_value": 40.548803, "relative_strength": -5.000563, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.718984, "energy": 81.119619, "activity_lines": [ 47.783173, 47.574202, 47.242037, 46.736904 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }