{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ddf86b1-37be-4237-a123-bd8d4546ea69", "symbol": "PAGEIND", "name": "Page Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.002, "architecture_energy": 33.546, "architecture_maturity": 50.671, "architecture_confidence": 90.855, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.66, "rotation_up": 35.58, "upward_expansion": 64.33, "deceleration": 87.76, "rotation_down": 26.62, "downward_expansion": 16.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 40068.0, 40246.636364, 39401.624572, 38053.667549 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 39900.0, "trend_reference": 36387.090104, "distance_from_trend": 0.096543, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39331.093475, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.014465, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.942531, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.130543, "excess_performance": 0.174252, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096543, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028484, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.014465, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062051, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.059425, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086764, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130543, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.565135, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61578, "relative_activity": 0.557243, "balance": 1.565135, "dry_up": 0.996692, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048661, "annualized_volatility": 0.271485, "from_high_reference": -0.147526, "from_low_reference": 0.343964 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36387.090104, "fair_value_reference": 39331.093475, "structural_low": 29688.285082, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.002683, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004954, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.089833, "worst_return": -0.100996, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.020587, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.031993, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.267516, "worst_return": -0.183257, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.131082, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.081573, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.352255, "worst_return": -0.108842, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050622, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01446, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091921, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078936, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052281, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", 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33.54625, "activity_lines": [ 40068.0, 40246.636364, 39401.624572, 38053.667549 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }