{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5de2620e-7928-4fe8-bbf4-9b3379e9ee94", "symbol": "600654", "name": "China Security Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.337, "architecture_energy": 40.194, "architecture_maturity": 62.96, "architecture_confidence": 66.194, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.57, "rotation_up": 26.94, "upward_expansion": 18.5, "deceleration": 64.77, "rotation_down": 40.61, "downward_expansion": 68.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.843333, 2.793455, 3.06319, 3.240194 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.99, "trend_reference": 3.458333, "distance_from_trend": -0.135422, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.956667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.011274, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.154775, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.229381, "excess_performance": -0.186178, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135422, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089912, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.011274, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.423919, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141548, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.236763, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.229381, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.530103, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 413042679, "relative_activity": 0.77154, "balance": 0.530103, "dry_up": 0.754833, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101878, "annualized_volatility": 0.498074, "from_high_reference": -0.382231, "from_low_reference": 0.215447 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.458333, "fair_value_reference": 2.956667, "structural_low": 2.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.023622, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.018622, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.215247, "worst_return": -0.069686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.084691, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.051288, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.786047, "worst_return": -0.059633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.224756, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.296929, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.721973, "worst_return": -0.212598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003003, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144772, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.167702, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130024, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": 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86.454931, "activity_lines": [ 2.644667, 2.812182, 3.198905, 3.360796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.79, "volume": 462560982, "typical_volume": 515692510.8, "trend": 3.512667, "fair_value": 2.946731, "relative_strength": -17.588992, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.879838, "energy": 77.955573, "activity_lines": [ 2.680667, 2.770364, 3.14081, 3.312258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.89, "volume": 426733712, "typical_volume": 526148947.15, "trend": 3.484333, "fair_value": 2.951282, "relative_strength": -14.847653, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.682843, "energy": 60.371035, "activity_lines": [ 2.754667, 2.766545, 3.09581, 3.272086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.99, "volume": 413042679, "typical_volume": 535348616.15, "trend": 3.458333, "fair_value": 2.956667, "relative_strength": -14.154775, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.337211, "energy": 40.194459, "activity_lines": [ 2.843333, 2.793455, 3.06319, 3.240194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }