{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5de3496d-7a82-4d69-8dd8-2c141cbf4832", "symbol": "A2A", "name": "A2A S.p.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.872, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 25.979, "architecture_energy": 17.011, "architecture_maturity": 10.201, "architecture_confidence": 35.72, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.45, "rotation_up": 48.74, "upward_expansion": 49.21, "deceleration": 36.26, "rotation_down": 27.77, "downward_expansion": 9.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.313467, 2.311909, 2.296186, 2.296107 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.324, "trend_reference": 2.306494, "distance_from_trend": 0.00759, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.953235, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.189821, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.272576, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.04931, "excess_performance": -0.223557, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00759, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006735, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.189821, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002236, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.162726, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013276, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04931, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.25, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.25, "dry_up": 4.173936, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026437, "annualized_volatility": 0.188663, "from_high_reference": -0.116896, "from_low_reference": 0.171664 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.306494, "fair_value_reference": 1.953235, "structural_low": 2.138, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.016884, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003988, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.062652, "worst_return": -0.041398, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.060492, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.040531, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.068192, "worst_return": 0.052791, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.194385, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.230269, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.22639, "worst_return": 0.16238, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.39556, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.323975, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.5545, "worst_return": 0.236621, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04891, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.099585, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039887, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015131, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086967, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104972, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046187, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001842, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046805, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060681, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084827, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098664, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.029639, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006838, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.45242, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 300.0, "trend": 1.309413, "fair_value": 1.176199, "relative_strength": 25.862266, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.332504, "energy": 58.078814, 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"activity_lines": [ 2.300533, 2.2807, 2.281305, 2.289438 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.316, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1975.95, "trend": 2.29231, "fair_value": 1.931544, "relative_strength": -15.88043, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.299316, "energy": 22.951467, "activity_lines": [ 2.310067, 2.289137, 2.284476, 2.291252 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.345, "volume": 4402, "typical_volume": 2196.05, "trend": 2.297774, "fair_value": 1.93721, "relative_strength": -12.851383, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.426903, "energy": 39.956351, "activity_lines": [ 2.324933, 2.302564, 2.290311, 2.294652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.34, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1760.45, "trend": 2.303039, "fair_value": 1.942696, "relative_strength": -13.895244, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.412017, "energy": 43.537887, "activity_lines": [ 2.333467, 2.313073, 2.295649, 2.297376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.264, "volume": 17608, "typical_volume": 2153.9, "trend": 2.304626, "fair_value": 1.94789, "relative_strength": -16.305433, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.988899, "energy": 12.545341, "activity_lines": [ 2.312733, 2.306909, 2.293028, 2.294857 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.324, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1318.3, "trend": 2.306494, "fair_value": 1.953235, "relative_strength": -16.272576, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.978785, "energy": 17.011389, "activity_lines": [ 2.313467, 2.311909, 2.296186, 2.296107 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }