{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5de37a26-342a-45e3-ad73-40a0c1057c21", "symbol": "CANTABIL", "name": "Cantabil Retail India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.469, "architecture_energy": 14.445, "architecture_maturity": 24.539, "architecture_confidence": 64.494, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.68, "rotation_up": 24.88, "upward_expansion": 23.35, "deceleration": 56.24, "rotation_down": 34.2, "downward_expansion": 52.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 240.032002, 241.895454, 237.034333, 239.758149 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 227.690002, "trend_reference": 248.448168, "distance_from_trend": -0.083551, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 245.043476, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.070818, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.765604, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.216949, "excess_performance": -0.17324, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.083551, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028871, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.070818, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065007, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087656, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05731, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.216949, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.535585, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2066963, "relative_activity": 2.5415, "balance": 0.535585, "dry_up": 1.532446, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086092, "annualized_volatility": 0.345232, "from_high_reference": -0.289896, "from_low_reference": 0.092038 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 248.448168, "fair_value_reference": 245.043476, "structural_low": 208.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.011571, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.009853, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.308992, "worst_return": -0.105373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.043936, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.040946, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.23574, "worst_return": -0.286297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.009577, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.052458, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.239233, 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0.000726, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.128181, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01927, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.102655, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.196452, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03656, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061374, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068253, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.008393, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072735, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 204.034225, "volume": 442850, "typical_volume": 411562.0, "trend": 196.565259, "fair_value": 154.302086, "relative_strength": -13.451859, "stage": 1, "regime": 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"close": 245.550003, "volume": 331526, "typical_volume": 735679.8, "trend": 250.389703, "fair_value": 244.954836, "relative_strength": -1.058608, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.93577, "energy": 15.02993, "activity_lines": [ 247.806001, 243.567635, 237.816428, 241.222646 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 227.690002, "volume": 2066963, "typical_volume": 813284.65, "trend": 248.448168, "fair_value": 245.043476, "relative_strength": -8.765604, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.469388, "energy": 14.445234, "activity_lines": [ 240.032002, 241.895454, 237.034333, 239.758149 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }