{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5de5c811-aa07-4d64-b1b6-f5f94d12ae3b", "symbol": "A2A", "name": "A2A S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.052, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 15.052, "architecture_energy": 13.36, "architecture_maturity": 43.961, "architecture_confidence": 42.756, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.53, "rotation_up": 49.01, "upward_expansion": 43.18, "deceleration": 28.14, "rotation_down": 25.06, "downward_expansion": 15.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.317467, 2.314564, 2.296207, 2.296516 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.325, "trend_reference": 2.306954, "distance_from_trend": 0.007822, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.951753, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.191237, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.866607, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.040061, "excess_performance": -0.210952, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007822, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006312, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.191237, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01421, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118666, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006042, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040061, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.166138, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43063240, "relative_activity": 1.17129, "balance": 1.166138, "dry_up": 1.141687, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033054, "annualized_volatility": 0.21393, "from_high_reference": -0.112126, "from_low_reference": 0.176401 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.306954, "fair_value_reference": 1.951753, "structural_low": 2.129, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.023077, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.01621, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.131213, "worst_return": -0.19198, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.021014, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.076438, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.154573, "worst_return": -0.186222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.049984, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027562, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.192022, "worst_return": -0.163877, "sufficient": false }, { 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23.036441, "energy": 38.255518, "activity_lines": [ 2.338733, 2.3146, 2.295199, 2.297613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.267, "volume": 44473167, "typical_volume": 38617960.2, "trend": 2.305481, "fair_value": 1.946324, "relative_strength": -11.715575, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.66024, "energy": 13.127796, "activity_lines": [ 2.317933, 2.309236, 2.292915, 2.295257 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.325, "volume": 43063240, "typical_volume": 36765660.45, "trend": 2.306954, "fair_value": 1.951753, "relative_strength": -11.866607, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.052331, "energy": 13.359795, "activity_lines": [ 2.317467, 2.314564, 2.296207, 2.296516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }