{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5df06ba1-3098-4199-84bd-94d22956c8a2", "symbol": "YINN", "name": "DIREXION DAILY FTSE CHINA BULL 3X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.805, "architecture_energy": 23.553, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.347, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.8, "rotation_up": 42.7, "upward_expansion": 23.39, "deceleration": 41.32, "rotation_down": 18.55, "downward_expansion": 55.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.961333, 27.783851, 28.749107, 30.349839 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 31.5, "trend_reference": 33.423298, "distance_from_trend": -0.057544, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.885661, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.012095, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.42269, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.289834, "excess_performance": -0.415459, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057544, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157903, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.012095, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109739, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.294227, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041408, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.289834, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.572234, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4607945, "relative_activity": 0.472866, "balance": 0.572234, "dry_up": 0.621576, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119228, "annualized_volatility": 0.610223, "from_high_reference": -0.451787, "from_low_reference": 0.522475 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.423298, "fair_value_reference": 31.885661, "structural_low": 20.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.092305, "positive_rate": 0.351351, "directional_follow_through": 0.648649, "median_excess_return": -0.096393, "regime_survival": 0.918919, "best_return": 0.527984, "worst_return": -0.465322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.242163, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.310417, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 1.067108, "worst_return": -0.574241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.304482, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.260209, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.278864, "worst_return": -0.478779, "sufficient": 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"typical_volume": 11057122.9, "trend": 34.973558, "fair_value": 32.029773, "relative_strength": -39.29967, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.820757, "energy": 61.249197, "activity_lines": [ 24.658106, 25.77301, 28.643121, 31.098464 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.7, "volume": 5718873, "typical_volume": 10468812.8, "trend": 34.402726, "fair_value": 31.935654, "relative_strength": -36.107774, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.55567, "energy": 45.716824, "activity_lines": [ 25.823333, 25.876711, 28.385675, 30.629202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.47, "volume": 6611663, "typical_volume": 10221262.35, "trend": 33.897406, "fair_value": 31.898301, "relative_strength": -25.375071, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.492358, "energy": 20.052185, "activity_lines": [ 28.421333, 26.935857, 28.609118, 30.50451 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.5, "volume": 4607945, "typical_volume": 9744711.0, "trend": 33.423298, "fair_value": 31.885661, "relative_strength": -29.42269, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.804711, "energy": 23.552766, "activity_lines": [ 29.961333, 27.783851, 28.749107, 30.349839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }