{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5df118c8-5b65-4241-b2d8-f23076e94b92", "symbol": "600184", "name": "North Electro-Optic Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.841, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.917, "architecture_energy": 61.887, "architecture_maturity": 15.522, "architecture_confidence": 77.476, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.61, "rotation_up": 14.04, "upward_expansion": 28.08, "deceleration": 49.9, "rotation_down": 71.32, "downward_expansion": 55.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.439333, 20.402693, 22.577153, 22.098965 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.24, "trend_reference": 21.308954, "distance_from_trend": -0.144022, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.266516, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.278518, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.141438, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.033428, "excess_performance": 0.076632, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.144022, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072022, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.278518, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.578835, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091414, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.3391, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033428, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.43192, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85166059, "relative_activity": 0.561547, "balance": 1.43192, "dry_up": 0.619809, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.203267, "annualized_volatility": 0.742134, "from_high_reference": -0.408809, "from_low_reference": 0.273743 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.308954, "fair_value_reference": 14.266516, "structural_low": 14.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.047655, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.061923, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.150309, "worst_return": -0.055, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.08211, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.048133, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.230887, "worst_return": -0.066667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.072034, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.064243, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.072034, "worst_return": 0.072034, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.085346, 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"2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.139844, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.309065, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.145729, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016692, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.124079, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.145388, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.426313, "energy": 25.232072, "activity_lines": [ 25.677332, 26.232877, 24.777794, 23.256953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.700001, "volume": 96238361, "typical_volume": 147097697.65, "trend": 21.486954, "fair_value": 14.183341, "relative_strength": -13.716572, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.392086, "energy": 15.307801, "activity_lines": [ 22.495334, 24.464325, 24.186515, 22.940225 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.84, "volume": 107466707, "typical_volume": 148366616.95, "trend": 21.426288, "fair_value": 14.208296, "relative_strength": -14.001476, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.380517, "energy": 41.793884, "activity_lines": [ 19.914667, 22.867959, 23.620855, 22.640421 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.129999, "volume": 87137880, "typical_volume": 149756516.75, "trend": 21.336288, "fair_value": 14.229783, "relative_strength": -17.711581, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.938673, "energy": 55.096947, "activity_lines": [ 17.856, 21.346618, 22.995956, 22.298725 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.24, "volume": 85166059, "typical_volume": 151663195.9, "trend": 21.308954, "fair_value": 14.266516, "relative_strength": -9.141438, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.917058, "energy": 61.886504, "activity_lines": [ 17.439333, 20.402693, 22.577153, 22.098965 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }