{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5df5316d-c127-4a66-80c8-1ab27fa51a30", "symbol": "NOV", "name": "Novatti Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.457, "architecture_energy": 30.729, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.841, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.95, "rotation_up": 26.99, "upward_expansion": 20.54, "deceleration": 46.54, "rotation_down": 33.83, "downward_expansion": 59.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0164, 0.016109, 0.017079, 0.018924 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.017, "trend_reference": 0.02155, "distance_from_trend": -0.211137, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.04374, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.611343, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -38.809996, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.37037, "excess_performance": -0.434076, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.211137, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188324, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.611343, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011754, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.3881, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089575, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.37037, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.7562, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2355037, "relative_activity": 1.237139, "balance": 2.7562, "dry_up": 0.875985, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.162896, "annualized_volatility": 0.538184, "from_high_reference": -0.630435, "from_low_reference": 0.307692 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.02155, "fair_value_reference": 0.04374, "structural_low": 0.013, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 49, "median_return": -0.060606, "positive_rate": 0.367347, "directional_follow_through": 0.591837, "median_excess_return": -0.051477, "regime_survival": 0.918367, "best_return": 0.447368, "worst_return": -0.283333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.178571, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.151264, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.727273, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.333333, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.363319, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.409091, "worst_return": -0.552083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.963122, "energy": 42.029587, "activity_lines": [ 0.016, 0.015855, 0.018057, 0.020111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.015, "volume": 1049497, "typical_volume": 1732213.95, "trend": 0.02245, "fair_value": 0.045157, "relative_strength": -44.131201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.987667, "energy": 44.762554, "activity_lines": [ 0.015667, 0.015645, 0.01756, 0.019597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.017, "volume": 2505209, "typical_volume": 1811420.85, "trend": 0.021983, "fair_value": 0.044497, "relative_strength": -37.462331, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.796286, "energy": 37.101259, "activity_lines": [ 0.016, 0.015873, 0.0173, 0.019245 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.017, "volume": 2355037, "typical_volume": 1903615.3, "trend": 0.02155, "fair_value": 0.04374, "relative_strength": -38.809996, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.457029, "energy": 30.729002, "activity_lines": [ 0.0164, 0.016109, 0.017079, 0.018924 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }