{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5df610fa-6629-4e41-967b-95c2a80fd757", "symbol": "BDTX", "name": "Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.602, "architecture_energy": 34.07, "architecture_maturity": 32.621, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.82, "rotation_up": 23.07, "upward_expansion": 4.1, "deceleration": 49.83, "rotation_down": 44.57, "downward_expansion": 75.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.818667, 1.820364, 2.023571, 2.127892 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.95, "trend_reference": 2.2455, "distance_from_trend": -0.131597, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.169519, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.384765, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.361679, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.135255, "excess_performance": -0.322709, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.131597, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163947, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.384765, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.299505, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.373617, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.256778, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.135255, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.391979, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3078721, "relative_activity": 0.467505, "balance": 0.391979, "dry_up": 0.512547, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.210738, "annualized_volatility": 0.717818, "from_high_reference": -0.605263, "from_low_reference": 0.21875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.2455, "fair_value_reference": 3.169519, "structural_low": 1.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.008542, "positive_rate": 0.46875, "directional_follow_through": 0.53125, "median_excess_return": -0.025233, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.783784, "worst_return": -0.480938, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.325942, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.159154, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 1.064748, "worst_return": -0.498756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.054987, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.165844, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.942446, "worst_return": -0.591278, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118211, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006849, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.169231, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.335079, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03861, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.342569, "energy": 36.625479, "activity_lines": [ 1.846667, 1.885455, 2.14681, 2.224892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.76, "volume": 2854218, "typical_volume": 6555238.85, "trend": 2.300833, "fair_value": 3.189776, "relative_strength": -41.23862, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.320178, "energy": 34.616701, "activity_lines": [ 1.828, 1.840909, 2.1, 2.188215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.69, "volume": 3714120, "typical_volume": 6557780.15, "trend": 2.274167, "fair_value": 3.178365, "relative_strength": -43.327159, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.108562, "energy": 38.472498, "activity_lines": [ 1.779333, 1.801636, 2.048381, 2.148806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.95, "volume": 3078721, "typical_volume": 6585433.1, "trend": 2.2455, "fair_value": 3.169519, "relative_strength": -37.361679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.601665, "energy": 34.070263, "activity_lines": [ 1.818667, 1.820364, 2.023571, 2.127892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }