{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5df6b981-c2ae-463c-8cce-1dc788aeedae", "symbol": "000524", "name": "Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.169, "architecture_energy": 46.713, "architecture_maturity": 88.042, "architecture_confidence": 83.165, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.92, "rotation_up": 26.24, "upward_expansion": 6.47, "deceleration": 60.81, "rotation_down": 48.17, "downward_expansion": 77.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.946, 8.958095, 9.183057, 9.773941 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.33, "trend_reference": 10.609302, "distance_from_trend": -0.120583, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.37608, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.100816, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.838098, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.267661, "excess_performance": -0.275061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.120583, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099055, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.100816, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060826, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238381, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105886, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.267661, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.863234, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39413613, "relative_activity": 0.837614, "balance": 0.863234, "dry_up": 1.39022, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074802, "annualized_volatility": 0.431196, "from_high_reference": -0.474958, "from_low_reference": 0.154703 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.609302, "fair_value_reference": 10.37608, "structural_low": 8.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.029325, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.009701, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.207299, "worst_return": -0.096089, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.065538, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.003629, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.427737, "worst_return": -0.205139, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.121001, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.175879, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.300116, "worst_return": -0.276161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 10.950302, "fair_value": 10.409856, "relative_strength": -31.380174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.375124, "energy": 61.795356, "activity_lines": [ 8.976, 9.033834, 9.491378, 10.15 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.09, "volume": 54149377, "typical_volume": 48342782.85, "trend": 10.800636, "fair_value": 10.393088, "relative_strength": -32.668419, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.09975, "energy": 66.256377, "activity_lines": [ 8.674, 8.851303, 9.292668, 9.965464 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.2, "volume": 69266622, "typical_volume": 48452651.3, "trend": 10.697969, "fair_value": 10.382225, "relative_strength": -21.628005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.591208, "energy": 49.927951, "activity_lines": [ 8.796667, 8.894347, 9.222529, 9.862197 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.33, "volume": 39413613, "typical_volume": 47054606.45, "trend": 10.609302, "fair_value": 10.37608, "relative_strength": -23.838098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.169178, "energy": 46.712823, "activity_lines": [ 8.946, 8.958095, 9.183057, 9.773941 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }