{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5df74a0c-25f8-436a-9c53-778e8ea4b103", "symbol": "603348", "name": "Wencan Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.461, "architecture_energy": 58.903, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 28.86, "upward_expansion": 11.34, "deceleration": 60.98, "rotation_down": 51.26, "downward_expansion": 84.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.860667, 13.900727, 15.178905, 16.331892 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.22, "trend_reference": 17.780333, "distance_from_trend": -0.20024, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.198505, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.435681, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.714632, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.310713, "excess_performance": -0.267509, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.20024, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104596, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.435681, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125323, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.257146, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089175, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.310713, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.374623, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21458635, "relative_activity": 1.674316, "balance": 0.374623, "dry_up": 1.309599, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083577, "annualized_volatility": 0.323494, "from_high_reference": -0.408486, "from_low_reference": 0.121451 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.780333, "fair_value_reference": 25.198505, "structural_low": 12.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.023076, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.005718, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.354623, "worst_return": -0.334103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.005547, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04138, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 1.219862, "worst_return": -0.34, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.195696, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.216392, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.912419, "worst_return": -0.352787, "sufficient": true }, { 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14.784727, 16.499619, 17.482323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.69, "volume": 13709122, "typical_volume": 11914378.1, "trend": 18.333667, "fair_value": 25.790803, "relative_strength": -27.200575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.860271, "energy": 81.718237, "activity_lines": [ 13.755333, 14.411636, 16.115571, 17.17071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.78, "volume": 12696715, "typical_volume": 12049338.8, "trend": 18.109667, "fair_value": 25.612954, "relative_strength": -32.243055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.139809, "energy": 73.402305, "activity_lines": [ 13.398, 13.968, 15.67619, 16.812409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.39, "volume": 19272721, "typical_volume": 12400380.25, "trend": 17.948333, "fair_value": 25.414742, "relative_strength": -23.391468, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.713434, "energy": 64.645991, "activity_lines": [ 13.692, 13.921091, 15.422048, 16.57243 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.22, "volume": 21458635, "typical_volume": 12816361.2, "trend": 17.780333, "fair_value": 25.198505, "relative_strength": -25.714632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.460678, "energy": 58.902735, "activity_lines": [ 13.860667, 13.900727, 15.178905, 16.331892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }