{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5dfd178a-78b2-4870-9024-b6f0abbbfe95", "symbol": "IBZL", "name": "iShares MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.769, "architecture_energy": 22.763, "architecture_maturity": 26.387, "architecture_confidence": 65.923, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.39, "rotation_up": 38.72, "upward_expansion": 26.15, "deceleration": 40.14, "rotation_down": 23.57, "downward_expansion": 48.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.311333, 25.06891, 25.173479, 25.399223 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 24.764999, "trend_reference": 25.501753, "distance_from_trend": -0.02889, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.838888, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.188403, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.40039, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.027699, "excess_performance": -0.198591, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02889, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038824, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.188403, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114891, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094004, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166036, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.027699, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.197238, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 158697, "relative_activity": 1.907956, "balance": 0.197238, "dry_up": 1.846559, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036726, "annualized_volatility": 0.214142, "from_high_reference": -0.138159, "from_low_reference": 0.346921 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.501753, "fair_value_reference": 20.838888, "structural_low": 23.571189, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.017768, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.00587, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.141202, "worst_return": -0.101665, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.035131, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.005551, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.249535, "worst_return": -0.081865, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.045255, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.035625, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.120075, 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.046898, "energy": 12.976495, "activity_lines": [ 24.898334, 24.644213, 25.213647, 25.372609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.790001, "volume": 23891, "typical_volume": 74142.3, "trend": 25.3106, "fair_value": 20.776085, "relative_strength": -1.97726, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.410822, "energy": 18.261334, "activity_lines": [ 25.259001, 24.86588, 25.235436, 25.413071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.77, "volume": 147096, "typical_volume": 78023.4, "trend": 25.439043, "fair_value": 20.80917, "relative_strength": -2.895447, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.222458, "energy": 22.956483, "activity_lines": [ 25.492667, 25.065726, 25.253425, 25.44271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.764999, "volume": 158697, "typical_volume": 83176.45, "trend": 25.501753, "fair_value": 20.838888, "relative_strength": -9.40039, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.768546, "energy": 22.763054, "activity_lines": [ 25.311333, 25.06891, 25.173479, 25.399223 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }