{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5dff7cf1-b1fd-4ffb-aa1d-eeeea8cb10ee", "symbol": "PEMX", "name": "PUTNAM ETF TR EMERGING MARKETS EX CHINA ETF USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.974, "architecture_energy": 19.396, "architecture_maturity": 65.175, "architecture_confidence": 78.731, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.77, "rotation_up": 16.56, "upward_expansion": 45.45, "deceleration": 87.97, "rotation_down": 40.62, "downward_expansion": 28.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 82.486607, 84.585789, 84.598874, 82.298932 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 83.2796, "trend_reference": 79.148727, "distance_from_trend": 0.052191, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 54.364181, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.531884, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.647202, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.135994, "excess_performance": 0.010369, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052191, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105941, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.531884, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175633, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.046472, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164271, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.135994, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.231523, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8655, "relative_activity": 0.78412, "balance": 4.231523, "dry_up": 0.552327, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061557, "annualized_volatility": 0.330239, "from_high_reference": -0.125214, "from_low_reference": 0.508826 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 79.148727, "fair_value_reference": 54.364181, "structural_low": 67.3223, "invalidation": 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"positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.042637, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064491, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005213, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.348072, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", 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"fair_value": 54.068589, "relative_strength": 6.043166, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.244684, "energy": 21.522211, "activity_lines": [ 82.71744, 85.131662, 84.471622, 81.99831 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 83.2796, "volume": 8655, "typical_volume": 11037.85, "trend": 79.148727, "fair_value": 54.364181, "relative_strength": 4.647202, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.974376, "energy": 19.396213, "activity_lines": [ 82.486607, 84.585789, 84.598874, 82.298932 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }