{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e03e80d-83c9-44db-a516-92155dbe8e31", "symbol": "ORCP", "name": "Oracle Power PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.467, "architecture_energy": 53.168, "architecture_maturity": 25.221, "architecture_confidence": 91.088, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.2, "rotation_up": 12.7, "upward_expansion": 10.62, "deceleration": 39.01, "rotation_down": 67.23, "downward_expansion": 88.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.000417, 0.000443, 0.000473, 0.000486 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.00039, "trend_reference": 0.000513, "distance_from_trend": -0.24026, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.000325, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.20071, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.794391, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.264151, "excess_performance": -0.315386, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.24026, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053352, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.20071, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212623, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167944, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.59938, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.264151, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.664399, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 276107715, "relative_activity": 0.55451, "balance": 0.664399, "dry_up": 0.994224, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.291913, "annualized_volatility": 0.753157, "from_high_reference": -0.61, "from_low_reference": 2.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.000513, "fair_value_reference": 0.000325, "structural_low": 0.00035, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.068056, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.079453, "regime_survival": 0.904762, "best_return": 1.666667, "worst_return": -0.692308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.175991, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.166702, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 2.0, "worst_return": -0.681818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.215201, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.273993, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 4.0, "worst_return": -0.704545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -20.496924, "energy": 17.736641, "activity_lines": [ 0.000483, 0.000498, 0.000502, 0.00051 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.00042, "volume": 958549885, "typical_volume": 534716245.0, "trend": 0.00051, "fair_value": 0.000335, "relative_strength": -5.149446, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.496859, "energy": 41.195822, "activity_lines": [ 0.000459, 0.000481, 0.000494, 0.000504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.00043, "volume": 372700607, "typical_volume": 519783630.05, "trend": 0.000513, "fair_value": 0.000331, "relative_strength": -5.150133, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.591654, "energy": 47.064122, "activity_lines": [ 0.000442, 0.000469, 0.000488, 0.000499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00043, "volume": 372861812, "typical_volume": 513554876.8, "trend": 0.000515, "fair_value": 0.000328, "relative_strength": -7.181338, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.018836, "energy": 48.628953, "activity_lines": [ 0.000432, 0.000459, 0.000482, 0.000494 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00039, "volume": 276107715, "typical_volume": 497930842.9, "trend": 0.000513, "fair_value": 0.000325, "relative_strength": -16.794391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.466812, "energy": 53.167996, "activity_lines": [ 0.000417, 0.000443, 0.000473, 0.000486 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }