{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e05e323-486d-414c-88e7-869de57c1dcd", "symbol": "002042", "name": "Huafu Fashion Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.635, "architecture_energy": 33.16, "architecture_maturity": 44.81, "architecture_confidence": 57.588, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.76, "rotation_up": 25.22, "upward_expansion": 16.49, "deceleration": 63.96, "rotation_down": 36.87, "downward_expansion": 64.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.706667, 3.658086, 3.944528, 4.09851 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.82, "trend_reference": 4.240287, "distance_from_trend": -0.099118, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.324196, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.116599, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.342711, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.086124, "excess_performance": -0.093524, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099118, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054017, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.116599, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.333149, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.183427, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067366, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.086124, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.155905, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 142694031, "relative_activity": 0.629092, "balance": 1.155905, "dry_up": 0.641796, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104935, "annualized_volatility": 0.452742, "from_high_reference": -0.35906, "from_low_reference": 0.130178 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.240287, "fair_value_reference": 4.324196, "structural_low": 3.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.016484, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.296296, "median_excess_return": -0.005853, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.184573, "worst_return": -0.143529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.01282, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.004178, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.118541, "worst_return": -0.183716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.098291, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.073763, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.43897, "worst_return": -0.174451, "sufficient": true }, { 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.941862, "energy": 49.831544, "activity_lines": [ 3.578667, 3.649724, 4.027801, 4.160633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.74, "volume": 123564334, "typical_volume": 232201495.1, "trend": 4.25462, "fair_value": 4.319564, "relative_strength": -16.500655, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.874297, "energy": 37.250721, "activity_lines": [ 3.641333, 3.635774, 3.980427, 4.12655 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.82, "volume": 142694031, "typical_volume": 226825376.05, "trend": 4.240287, "fair_value": 4.324196, "relative_strength": -18.342711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.635141, "energy": 33.159513, "activity_lines": [ 3.706667, 3.658086, 3.944528, 4.09851 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }