{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e0bde22-f364-4512-9a55-b1a3968e5a18", "symbol": "600503", "name": "Deluxe Family Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.507, "architecture_energy": 44.748, "architecture_maturity": 30.564, "architecture_confidence": 87.647, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.82, "rotation_up": 18.56, "upward_expansion": 5.88, "deceleration": 56.22, "rotation_down": 57.69, "downward_expansion": 79.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.043333, 2.076, 2.232952, 2.311892 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.12, "trend_reference": 2.424333, "distance_from_trend": -0.125533, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.513802, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.156656, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.546546, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.19084, "excess_performance": -0.147636, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125533, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094835, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.156656, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157569, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.215465, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053883, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.19084, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.328433, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 164235757, "relative_activity": 1.088315, "balance": 1.328433, "dry_up": 1.024527, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117562, "annualized_volatility": 0.417517, "from_high_reference": -0.468672, "from_low_reference": 0.115789 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.424333, "fair_value_reference": 2.513802, "structural_low": 1.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.007584, "positive_rate": 0.441176, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": 0.000415, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.308571, "worst_return": -0.256604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.027527, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.044009, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.27933, "worst_return": -0.209808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.005245, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.049874, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.044227, "worst_return": -0.19084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 1.91, "volume": 151352388, "typical_volume": 150604846.35, "trend": 2.464667, "fair_value": 2.523598, "relative_strength": -27.796693, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.044189, "energy": 74.709665, "activity_lines": [ 2.0, 2.132727, 2.281286, 2.358839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.06, "volume": 140221580, "typical_volume": 151730866.55, "trend": 2.443, "fair_value": 2.518508, "relative_strength": -22.037211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.242857, "energy": 58.962259, "activity_lines": [ 2.014667, 2.094, 2.253095, 2.332731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.12, "volume": 164235757, "typical_volume": 150908249.45, "trend": 2.424333, "fair_value": 2.513802, "relative_strength": -21.546546, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.506664, "energy": 44.748331, "activity_lines": [ 2.043333, 2.076, 2.232952, 2.311892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }