{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e1095f4-cf77-4e38-8615-2f9b5d73dd52", "symbol": "STWD", "name": "Starwood Property Trust Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.326, "architecture_energy": 28.952, "architecture_maturity": 61.009, "architecture_confidence": 83.53, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.47, "rotation_up": 26.62, "upward_expansion": 6.02, "deceleration": 54.01, "rotation_down": 37.7, "downward_expansion": 72.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.424667, 16.460997, 16.652993, 16.823572 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.45, "trend_reference": 17.066359, "distance_from_trend": -0.036115, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.914192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.027444, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.0597, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.066858, "excess_performance": -0.192483, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036115, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018006, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.027444, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056317, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160597, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016237, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066858, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.162536, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36719829, "relative_activity": 2.222283, "balance": 1.162536, "dry_up": 1.353224, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035911, "annualized_volatility": 0.151432, "from_high_reference": -0.146384, "from_low_reference": 0.060606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.066359, "fair_value_reference": 16.914192, "structural_low": 15.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.027044, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.006713, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.1427, "worst_return": -0.09544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.007902, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.00811, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.123996, "worst_return": -0.060477, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.037667, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.105927, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.010348, "worst_return": -0.091971, "sufficient": false }, { 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16.522891, 16.869718, 17.041559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.64, "volume": 17060890, "typical_volume": 15875999.95, "trend": 17.224669, "fair_value": 16.897103, "relative_strength": -14.897753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.226509, "energy": 41.78853, "activity_lines": [ 16.473903, 16.51023, 16.830648, 17.002065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.0, "volume": 21241060, "typical_volume": 15820095.25, "trend": 17.208862, "fair_value": 16.904428, "relative_strength": -11.271917, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.272722, "energy": 24.197757, "activity_lines": [ 16.660456, 16.583733, 16.830293, 16.98757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.52, "volume": 13831181, "typical_volume": 15669014.1, "trend": 17.173896, "fair_value": 16.908382, "relative_strength": -12.820287, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.518841, "energy": 20.247308, "activity_lines": [ 16.654743, 16.574412, 16.785781, 16.943127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.98, "volume": 17647727, "typical_volume": 15718284.25, "trend": 17.109213, "fair_value": 16.908532, "relative_strength": -16.097577, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.808255, "energy": 34.391785, "activity_lines": [ 16.449333, 16.467543, 16.694332, 16.866102 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.45, "volume": 36719829, "typical_volume": 16523470.8, "trend": 17.066359, "fair_value": 16.914192, "relative_strength": -16.0597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.325603, "energy": 28.951856, "activity_lines": [ 16.424667, 16.460997, 16.652993, 16.823572 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }