{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e26996e-a6d6-46db-aee4-7f1259b1aebd", "symbol": "9513", "name": "Watani Iron Steel Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.22, "architecture_energy": 81.274, "architecture_maturity": 41.003, "architecture_confidence": 79.074, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.96, "rotation_up": 80.74, "upward_expansion": 92.33, "deceleration": 43.11, "rotation_down": 9.76, "downward_expansion": 16.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.232, 2.145091, 2.059095, 2.001892 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.4, "trend_reference": 1.939333, "distance_from_trend": 0.237539, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.349199, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.021625, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 25.393462, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.269841, "excess_performance": 0.301671, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.237539, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048477, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.021625, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.211337, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.253935, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.224518, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.269841, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.096955, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1137709, "relative_activity": 3.422299, "balance": 4.096955, "dry_up": 1.568755, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060897, "annualized_volatility": 0.375077, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.6 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.939333, "fair_value_reference": 2.349199, "structural_low": 1.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.034379, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.030418, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.168627, "worst_return": -0.113924, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.071696, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.074313, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.033824, "worst_return": -0.177215, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.248892, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.243863, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.175, "worst_return": -0.322785, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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249183.05, "trend": 1.869, "fair_value": 2.386058, "relative_strength": 10.098666, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.018583, "energy": 68.640159, "activity_lines": [ 2.035333, 1.996909, 1.956048, 1.920882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.15, "volume": 139996, "typical_volume": 251033.5, "trend": 1.885, "fair_value": 2.375929, "relative_strength": 14.057372, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.333212, "energy": 76.827281, "activity_lines": [ 2.086, 2.027455, 1.979381, 1.939011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.99, "volume": 290048, "typical_volume": 259121.2, "trend": 1.894667, "fair_value": 2.366186, "relative_strength": 4.900786, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.668563, "energy": 63.094524, "activity_lines": [ 2.065333, 2.026364, 1.98581, 1.945785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.28, "volume": 518314, "typical_volume": 275626.4, "trend": 1.915667, "fair_value": 2.357276, "relative_strength": 22.287613, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.77735, "energy": 76.721458, "activity_lines": [ 2.138, 2.078, 2.018, 1.970645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.4, "volume": 1137709, "typical_volume": 332440.0, "trend": 1.939333, "fair_value": 2.349199, "relative_strength": 25.393462, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.219667, "energy": 81.274372, "activity_lines": [ 2.232, 2.145091, 2.059095, 2.001892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }