{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e32f84a-fe70-417c-b86e-1224103dad01", "symbol": "CCMCUA", "name": "UBS CMCI Commodity Carry SF UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 89.426, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.508, "architecture_energy": 28.866, "architecture_maturity": 38.998, "architecture_confidence": 71.076, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.81, "rotation_up": 6.92, "upward_expansion": 22.05, "deceleration": 70.16, "rotation_down": 58.98, "downward_expansion": 55.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 141.412001, 143.321455, 141.616477, 141.567484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 142.360001, "trend_reference": 144.158666, "distance_from_trend": -0.012477, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 151.858546, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.062549, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.107618, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.100468, "excess_performance": -0.183351, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012477, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041558, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.062549, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046263, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.161076, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009005, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.100468, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.901651, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 927, "relative_activity": 0.857579, "balance": 1.901651, "dry_up": 0.799297, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022727, "annualized_volatility": 0.310769, "from_high_reference": -0.148157, "from_low_reference": 0.169762 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 144.158666, "fair_value_reference": 151.858546, 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147.324666, "fair_value": 151.825725, "relative_strength": -14.647348, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 11.323635, "energy": 65.233059, "activity_lines": [ 147.174668, 144.589091, 140.891334, 142.851613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 144.0, "volume": 2297, "typical_volume": 2910.35, "trend": 146.64, "fair_value": 151.850725, "relative_strength": -15.572959, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.218201, "energy": 55.84348, "activity_lines": [ 146.114668, 144.952, 141.272191, 142.637118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 137.300003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1307.8, "trend": 145.717333, "fair_value": 151.835213, "relative_strength": -18.892731, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.301135, "energy": 21.205232, "activity_lines": [ 143.004002, 143.937455, 141.09181, 142.034538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 141.059998, "volume": 232, "typical_volume": 1187.2, "trend": 144.942, "fair_value": 151.842905, "relative_strength": -16.263183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.106604, "energy": 30.133701, "activity_lines": [ 141.793334, 143.574182, 141.299524, 141.734065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 142.360001, "volume": 927, "typical_volume": 1080.95, "trend": 144.158666, "fair_value": 151.858546, "relative_strength": -16.107618, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.508369, "energy": 28.866168, "activity_lines": [ 141.412001, 143.321455, 141.616477, 141.567484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }