{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e489402-db1c-4fb9-acff-bed9d288cfe9", "symbol": "H22", "name": "Hong Leong Asia Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.867, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.234, "architecture_energy": 15.062, "architecture_maturity": 23.993, "architecture_confidence": 62.606, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.64, "rotation_up": 24.55, "upward_expansion": 15.41, "deceleration": 41.17, "rotation_down": 33.61, "downward_expansion": 63.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.892667, 2.842, 2.956856, 2.983568 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.08, "trend_reference": 3.018664, "distance_from_trend": 0.020319, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.443523, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.133669, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.788427, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.079331, "excess_performance": -0.234166, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020319, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065879, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.133669, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.515635, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047884, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.345674, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.079331, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.409877, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8289200, "relative_activity": 1.070042, "balance": 1.409877, "dry_up": 1.213556, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097403, "annualized_volatility": 0.460992, "from_high_reference": -0.206186, "from_low_reference": 0.844864 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.018664, "fair_value_reference": 1.443523, "structural_low": 2.4, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.011073, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.006906, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.075188, "worst_return": -0.057142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.026162, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013126, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.085937, "worst_return": -0.085715, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.007143, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.05474, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.016393, "worst_return": -0.11865, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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12642200, "typical_volume": 7890505.0, "trend": 2.972105, "fair_value": 1.398248, "relative_strength": -15.545032, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.889846, "energy": 59.306407, "activity_lines": [ 2.688667, 2.845455, 2.968454, 2.992802 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.87, "volume": 9791600, "typical_volume": 7921100.0, "trend": 2.98859, "fair_value": 1.412901, "relative_strength": -8.795145, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.088595, "energy": 56.417649, "activity_lines": [ 2.727333, 2.819818, 2.958077, 2.986215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.87, "volume": 6880800, "typical_volume": 7853855.0, "trend": 3.002437, "fair_value": 1.427612, "relative_strength": -9.793151, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.688604, "energy": 34.538644, "activity_lines": [ 2.778667, 2.806545, 2.947702, 2.978564 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.08, "volume": 8289200, "typical_volume": 7746615.0, "trend": 3.018664, "fair_value": 1.443523, "relative_strength": -4.788427, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.234186, "energy": 15.061632, "activity_lines": [ 2.892667, 2.842, 2.956856, 2.983568 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }