{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e49b7ee-f37e-4baf-8d0c-304edf79489e", "symbol": "ARCOMA", "name": "Arcoma AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.77, "architecture_energy": 6.541, "architecture_maturity": 12.07, "architecture_confidence": 56.148, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.51, "rotation_up": 22.8, "upward_expansion": 39.23, "deceleration": 79.84, "rotation_down": 26.47, "downward_expansion": 30.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.237333, 8.344364, 8.392667, 8.340258 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.0, "trend_reference": 8.205333, "distance_from_trend": -0.025024, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.120256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.209506, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.743452, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.052632, "excess_performance": -0.008863, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025024, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042697, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.209506, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058039, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137435, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079685, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052632, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.478379, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21619, "relative_activity": 0.682263, "balance": 2.478379, "dry_up": 0.601947, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144135, "annualized_volatility": 0.413663, "from_high_reference": -0.20398, "from_low_reference": 0.298701 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.205333, "fair_value_reference": 10.120256, "structural_low": 6.16, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.01222, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.044296, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.164384, "worst_return": -0.205714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.07093, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01337, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.615894, "worst_return": -0.351852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.176598, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.234904, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.050955, "worst_return": -0.273148, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.097222, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.100404, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.384106, "worst_return": -0.132383, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.152318, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.301205, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.329167, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.246795, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074561, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138493, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.123377, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023622, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.122667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00939, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040767, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.7, "volume": 49186, "typical_volume": 35622.45, "trend": 9.086667, "fair_value": 13.3775, "relative_strength": -9.106808, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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"gate": "up", "direction": 29.28738, "energy": 13.507833, "activity_lines": [ 8.405333, 8.525818, 8.428857, 8.323871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.34, "volume": 3357, "typical_volume": 34858.8, "trend": 8.158, "fair_value": 10.12859, "relative_strength": -8.591349, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.118898, "energy": 14.525266, "activity_lines": [ 8.349333, 8.473455, 8.425429, 8.337419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.4, "volume": 29431, "typical_volume": 33490.95, "trend": 8.198, "fair_value": 10.125064, "relative_strength": -8.348986, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.502455, "energy": 12.855364, "activity_lines": [ 8.346667, 8.436364, 8.429048, 8.353032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.0, "volume": 21619, "typical_volume": 31687.2, "trend": 8.205333, "fair_value": 10.120256, "relative_strength": -13.743452, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.770002, "energy": 6.541201, "activity_lines": [ 8.237333, 8.344364, 8.392667, 8.340258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }