{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e4f458c-952b-41d6-905c-f5bfcd9e7fd3", "symbol": "601929", "name": "JiShi Media Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.534, "architecture_energy": 45.515, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.213, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.46, "rotation_up": 25.35, "upward_expansion": 13.87, "deceleration": 66.89, "rotation_down": 46.55, "downward_expansion": 72.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.298667, 2.295273, 2.472762, 2.655914 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.39, "trend_reference": 2.956, "distance_from_trend": -0.191475, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.246538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.063859, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.68107, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.345205, "excess_performance": -0.302002, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.191475, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132544, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.063859, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.321681, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.286811, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168723, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.345205, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.484955, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 491127425, "relative_activity": 1.119362, "balance": 0.484955, "dry_up": 1.176675, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104603, "annualized_volatility": 0.324071, "from_high_reference": -0.632308, "from_low_reference": 0.143541 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.956, "fair_value_reference": 2.246538, "structural_low": 2.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.005181, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": 0.002123, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.405405, "worst_return": -0.189781, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.065217, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.014672, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 1.214689, "worst_return": -0.218543, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.07027, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.054949, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.293785, "worst_return": -0.310559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 425038688.45, "trend": 3.11, "fair_value": 2.23609, "relative_strength": -30.784819, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.338478, "energy": 84.338956, "activity_lines": [ 2.306667, 2.445636, 2.652571, 2.858086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.16, "volume": 606841284, "typical_volume": 434620150.15, "trend": 3.066333, "fair_value": 2.238141, "relative_strength": -32.221239, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.034574, "energy": 77.787232, "activity_lines": [ 2.252667, 2.367455, 2.588524, 2.796796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.17, "volume": 462203276, "typical_volume": 431646237.85, "trend": 3.026333, "fair_value": 2.240385, "relative_strength": -32.891775, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.232427, "energy": 65.436767, "activity_lines": [ 2.218667, 2.307455, 2.532476, 2.738968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.34, "volume": 504924274, "typical_volume": 433441856.15, "trend": 2.991, "fair_value": 2.243526, "relative_strength": -28.104578, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.944957, "energy": 55.768027, "activity_lines": [ 2.254, 2.291818, 2.498286, 2.694688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.39, "volume": 491127425, "typical_volume": 438756751.95, "trend": 2.956, "fair_value": 2.246538, "relative_strength": -28.68107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.534208, "energy": 45.514734, "activity_lines": [ 2.298667, 2.295273, 2.472762, 2.655914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }