{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e580788-2c59-4a8b-912e-9f3ad7f9004f", "symbol": "KYP", "name": "Kinatico Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 82.599, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.221, "architecture_energy": 4.055, "architecture_maturity": 15.916, "architecture_confidence": 61.303, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.17, "rotation_up": 26.14, "upward_expansion": 31.05, "deceleration": 45.03, "rotation_down": 26.39, "downward_expansion": 44.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.152167, 0.150364, 0.149036, 0.152134 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.1625, "trend_reference": 0.162167, "distance_from_trend": 0.002055, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.162798, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.001831, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.563316, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.071429, "excess_performance": -0.135134, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002055, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.245444, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.001831, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056538, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.315633, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06176, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.595701, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10025056, "relative_activity": 4.23031, "balance": 1.595701, "dry_up": 2.087901, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119527, "annualized_volatility": 0.665023, "from_high_reference": -0.608434, "from_low_reference": 0.3 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.162167, "fair_value_reference": 0.162798, "structural_low": 0.125, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.109091, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.090031, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.176471, "worst_return": -0.16129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.2, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.182453, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.352941, "worst_return": -0.290323, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.25, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.272024, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.082353, "worst_return": -0.393548, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.181025, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.187684, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.141176, "worst_return": -0.503226, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.16, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122449, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127273, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.652174, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.224138, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.186047, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.194444, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.115, "volume": 290324, "typical_volume": 1310132.55, "trend": 0.091733, "fair_value": 0.125349, "relative_strength": 23.263281, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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0.14, "volume": 544707, "typical_volume": 1810585.55, "trend": 0.172417, "fair_value": 0.162301, "relative_strength": -38.919571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.051538, "energy": 21.581361, "activity_lines": [ 0.151, 0.146864, 0.148083, 0.154167 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.145, "volume": 4979628, "typical_volume": 1996478.9, "trend": 0.166583, "fair_value": 0.162494, "relative_strength": -37.649047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.61313, "energy": 16.29072, "activity_lines": [ 0.148333, 0.146909, 0.14769, 0.152398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1625, "volume": 10025056, "typical_volume": 2369816.1, "trend": 0.162167, "fair_value": 0.162798, "relative_strength": -31.563316, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.220535, "energy": 4.055217, "activity_lines": [ 0.152167, 0.150364, 0.149036, 0.152134 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }