{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e58a30a-4c42-499b-a20c-feca7fb579a1", "symbol": "ARJO-B", "name": "Arjo AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 41.037, "architecture_energy": 57.276, "architecture_maturity": 11.027, "architecture_confidence": 51.06, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.68, "rotation_up": 68.78, "upward_expansion": 61.7, "deceleration": 21.94, "rotation_down": 17.81, "downward_expansion": 20.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.014667, 26.503273, 25.833776, 25.616996 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 27.360001, "trend_reference": 25.742349, "distance_from_trend": 0.06284, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.089085, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.197397, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.558254, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.046012, "excess_performance": -0.015483, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06284, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05361, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.197397, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094145, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135583, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102396, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.046012, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.291681, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1208414, "relative_activity": 0.797688, "balance": 1.291681, "dry_up": 1.144925, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048358, "annualized_volatility": 0.24652, "from_high_reference": -0.219807, "from_low_reference": 0.181009 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.742349, "fair_value_reference": 34.089085, "structural_low": 23.166635, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.049944, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.018938, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.084584, "worst_return": -0.136029, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.011905, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.004537, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.076888, "worst_return": -0.253151, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.093816, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.125636, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.037615, "worst_return": -0.234568, "sufficient": false }, { 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24.766518, 25.323537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 27.219999, "volume": 574966, "typical_volume": 1747264.5, "trend": 26.347144, "fair_value": 34.557556, "relative_strength": -16.015522, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.015106, "energy": 5.806362, "activity_lines": [ 25.390666, 25.112727, 24.982772, 25.372431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.139999, "volume": 1061621, "typical_volume": 1695311.45, "trend": 26.212854, "fair_value": 34.457031, "relative_strength": -16.852375, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.340032, "energy": 14.225904, "activity_lines": [ 25.753333, 25.32909, 25.090554, 25.359067 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.299999, "volume": 3785669, "typical_volume": 1755683.95, "trend": 26.115944, "fair_value": 34.347929, "relative_strength": -11.555427, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.182678, "energy": 36.374976, "activity_lines": [ 26.419999, 25.721818, 25.310176, 25.429205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.4, "volume": 996138, "typical_volume": 1671606.15, "trend": 25.982605, "fair_value": 34.253309, "relative_strength": -15.074468, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.141379, "energy": 39.903114, "activity_lines": [ 26.593333, 25.908363, 25.438363, 25.447531 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.120001, "volume": 947544, "typical_volume": 1566662.55, "trend": 25.870694, "fair_value": 34.170016, "relative_strength": -13.260697, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.604984, "energy": 56.288226, "activity_lines": [ 26.84, 26.198909, 25.629737, 25.520912 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.360001, "volume": 1208414, "typical_volume": 1514894.8, "trend": 25.742349, "fair_value": 34.089085, "relative_strength": -13.558254, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.03653, "energy": 57.275709, "activity_lines": [ 27.014667, 26.503273, 25.833776, 25.616996 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }