{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e5995bd-9257-45eb-a45a-96a572948081", "symbol": "VMO", "name": "Invesco Municipal Opportunity Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.787, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.378, "architecture_energy": 23.257, "architecture_maturity": 34.769, "architecture_confidence": 74.244, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.75, "rotation_up": 35.72, "upward_expansion": 63.56, "deceleration": 84.4, "rotation_down": 27.58, "downward_expansion": 15.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.73453, 9.750972, 9.695809, 9.647985 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.83, "trend_reference": 9.593773, "distance_from_trend": 0.024623, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.633368, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.138605, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.484933, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.030304, "excess_performance": -0.09532, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024623, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019036, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.138605, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006816, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064849, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016901, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030304, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.518939, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 898164, "relative_activity": 0.731867, "balance": 1.518939, "dry_up": 0.833412, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01867, "annualized_volatility": 0.106772, "from_high_reference": -0.007071, "from_low_reference": 0.15316 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.593773, "fair_value_reference": 8.633368, "structural_low": 9.039263, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.021186, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.008893, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.052301, "worst_return": -0.056044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.018057, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.047341, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.082269, "worst_return": -0.094537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.015064, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.058813, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.129248, "worst_return": -0.081355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038885, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004592, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038205, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015074, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002353, "active": false }, { 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9.805796, 9.736034, 9.645853, 9.604603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.81, "volume": 1296404, "typical_volume": 1212005.75, "trend": 9.551572, "fair_value": 8.594545, "relative_strength": -3.207407, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.08315, "energy": 61.624146, "activity_lines": [ 9.815262, 9.758803, 9.666754, 9.622544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.6, "volume": 1021811, "typical_volume": 1218310.5, "trend": 9.564876, "fair_value": 8.606114, "relative_strength": -4.674605, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.744693, "energy": 30.820394, "activity_lines": [ 9.742495, 9.741297, 9.667309, 9.625669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.66, "volume": 874754, "typical_volume": 1216786.0, "trend": 9.579218, "fair_value": 8.619328, "relative_strength": -4.996399, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.514309, "energy": 19.262056, "activity_lines": [ 9.705579, 9.732323, 9.673767, 9.631806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.83, "volume": 898164, "typical_volume": 1227223.75, "trend": 9.593773, "fair_value": 8.633368, "relative_strength": -6.484933, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.378363, "energy": 23.25704, "activity_lines": [ 9.73453, 9.750972, 9.695809, 9.647985 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }