{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e5e0866-0b44-4dac-a7b8-86c3c0f6c5f8", "symbol": "002339", "name": "Integrated Electronic Systems Lab Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.411, "architecture_energy": 60.106, "architecture_maturity": 83.874, "architecture_confidence": 91.919, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 28.98, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.94, "rotation_down": 48.61, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.988667, 7.012, 7.777237, 8.593762 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.22, "trend_reference": 9.546266, "distance_from_trend": -0.243683, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.519208, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.039793, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.379675, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.337615, "excess_performance": -0.345014, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.243683, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043166, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.039793, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.387691, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223797, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14507, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.337615, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.716446, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92166570, "relative_activity": 1.094431, "balance": 0.716446, "dry_up": 1.229997, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100488, "annualized_volatility": 0.439715, "from_high_reference": -0.467159, "from_low_reference": 0.168285 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.546266, "fair_value_reference": 7.519208, "structural_low": 6.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.001326, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.014466, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.473469, "worst_return": -0.092466, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.045279, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.025579, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.210721, "worst_return": -0.121372, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.009511, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.067335, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.216266, "worst_return": -0.15331, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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6.83, "volume": 136928589, "typical_volume": 101535940.55, "trend": 9.665266, "fair_value": 7.523715, "relative_strength": -24.657797, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.656587, "energy": 70.800792, "activity_lines": [ 6.753333, 7.099021, 8.099837, 8.910205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.14, "volume": 123261650, "typical_volume": 89608718.5, "trend": 9.599599, "fair_value": 7.522257, "relative_strength": -19.619537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.547999, "energy": 64.574167, "activity_lines": [ 6.866667, 7.029439, 7.923323, 8.747285 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.22, "volume": 92166570, "typical_volume": 84214110.95, "trend": 9.546266, "fair_value": 7.519208, "relative_strength": -22.379675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.41101, "energy": 60.105644, "activity_lines": [ 6.988667, 7.012, 7.777237, 8.593762 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }