{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e5e3558-4978-4fa0-8e1f-1bfb6eae3ab4", "symbol": "SOBA", "name": "AT&T Inc.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.781, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.244, "architecture_energy": 28.262, "architecture_maturity": 70.533, "architecture_confidence": 71.592, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.47, "rotation_up": 34.22, "upward_expansion": 20.2, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 25.46, "downward_expansion": 58.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.2952, 19.751265, 20.207463, 20.926391 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.6, "trend_reference": 21.551779, "distance_from_trend": -0.044162, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.896915, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.090125, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.656527, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.091101, "excess_performance": -0.155741, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044162, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021453, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.090125, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085239, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126565, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064959, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.091101, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.918493, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28543, "relative_activity": 1.066811, "balance": 1.918493, "dry_up": 1.309901, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059847, "annualized_volatility": 0.302975, "from_high_reference": -0.183947, "from_low_reference": 0.176677 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.551779, "fair_value_reference": 18.896915, "structural_low": 17.506935, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.006407, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.006969, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.196981, "worst_return": -0.112042, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.030928, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.035424, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.177533, "worst_return": -0.155653, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.018457, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011113, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.200351, "worst_return": -0.053399, "sufficient": false }, { 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19.535592, 20.237598, 21.390459, 21.698187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 17.806301, "volume": 5865, "typical_volume": 23292.9, "trend": 21.619055, "fair_value": 18.612823, "relative_strength": -24.214777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.066718, "energy": 93.02011, "activity_lines": [ 18.873772, 19.690675, 20.966181, 21.444416 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.466, "volume": 64423, "typical_volume": 25490.9, "trend": 21.54975, "fair_value": 18.66089, "relative_strength": -18.880213, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.176794, "energy": 87.997105, "activity_lines": [ 18.657098, 19.346855, 20.633726, 21.240993 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.426001, "volume": 20031, "typical_volume": 25476.35, "trend": 21.526255, "fair_value": 18.713144, "relative_strength": -13.603093, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.447485, "energy": 77.026512, "activity_lines": [ 18.824374, 19.248471, 20.415728, 21.103977 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.950001, "volume": 48613, "typical_volume": 26145.9, "trend": 21.548361, "fair_value": 18.775277, "relative_strength": -7.589329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.972, "energy": 45.998047, "activity_lines": [ 19.53006, 19.463251, 20.361118, 21.066799 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.315, "volume": 43001, "typical_volume": 27097.85, "trend": 21.542964, "fair_value": 18.836015, "relative_strength": -11.881324, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.271058, "energy": 26.940243, "activity_lines": [ 19.892754, 19.568031, 20.262054, 20.987227 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.6, "volume": 28543, "typical_volume": 26755.45, "trend": 21.551779, "fair_value": 18.896915, "relative_strength": -12.656527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.243526, "energy": 28.262067, "activity_lines": [ 20.2952, 19.751265, 20.207463, 20.926391 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }