{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e75d19e-6ff7-4c23-b096-84563e18b61d", "symbol": "USDV", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P US Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF Dis", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.137, "architecture_energy": 68.951, "architecture_maturity": 45.051, "architecture_confidence": 70.193, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.2, "rotation_up": 74.96, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 65.33, "rotation_down": 14.49, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 69.717334, 69.160048, 67.468749, 66.608193 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 70.230003, "trend_reference": 65.684147, "distance_from_trend": 0.069208, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 61.551704, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.140992, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.539094, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.075181, "excess_performance": -0.007702, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069208, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037872, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.140992, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096078, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005391, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006085, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075181, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.666699, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25928, "relative_activity": 1.992745, "balance": 3.666699, "dry_up": 1.194452, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019587, "annualized_volatility": 0.10069, "from_high_reference": -0.026746, "from_low_reference": 0.181731 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.684147, "fair_value_reference": 61.551704, "structural_low": 62.150002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.000731, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": 0.010247, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.051378, "worst_return": -0.075591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.002043, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.023453, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.072428, "worst_return": -0.046667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.035414, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.004584, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.0843, "worst_return": -0.038721, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 70.25, "volume": 16784, "typical_volume": 11621.3, "trend": 65.187285, "fair_value": 61.388473, "relative_strength": 0.732196, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.144515, "energy": 92.760211, "activity_lines": [ 69.658, 68.494162, 66.769464, 66.074719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 68.669998, "volume": 14423, "typical_volume": 12038.85, "trend": 65.443866, "fair_value": 61.463699, "relative_strength": -1.522226, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.455988, "energy": 66.530589, "activity_lines": [ 69.439332, 68.723093, 67.054575, 66.29941 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.230003, "volume": 25928, "typical_volume": 13011.2, "trend": 65.684147, "fair_value": 61.551704, "relative_strength": -0.539094, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.136831, "energy": 68.951135, "activity_lines": [ 69.717334, 69.160048, 67.468749, 66.608193 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }