{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e780b79-62bb-46a8-8c70-6eaa790f9730", "symbol": "600295", "name": "Inner Mongolia ERDOS Resources Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.563, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.507, "architecture_energy": 27.165, "architecture_maturity": 74.148, "architecture_confidence": 76.967, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.56, "rotation_up": 27.4, "upward_expansion": 21.14, "deceleration": 46.78, "rotation_down": 32.36, "downward_expansion": 62.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.320667, 12.137472, 12.628061, 13.252962 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.04, "trend_reference": 14.014382, "distance_from_trend": -0.140883, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.099767, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.192107, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.933706, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.238938, "excess_performance": -0.195734, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.140883, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017212, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.192107, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.292197, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039337, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168549, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.238938, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.721931, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51026781, "relative_activity": 1.215439, "balance": 0.721931, "dry_up": 1.430477, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082281, "annualized_volatility": 0.43489, "from_high_reference": -0.333333, "from_low_reference": 0.267368 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.014382, "fair_value_reference": 10.099767, "structural_low": 10.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.031042, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.013041, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.172589, "worst_return": -0.092024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.091398, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.051, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.16329, "worst_return": -0.075758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.130696, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.088116, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.31139, "worst_return": -0.038589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": 2.922727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.216088, "energy": 47.395604, "activity_lines": [ 12.010667, 12.087567, 12.827694, 13.461141 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.75, "volume": 63494316, "typical_volume": 41872772.5, "trend": 14.025049, "fair_value": 10.075274, "relative_strength": 4.750396, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.495315, "energy": 31.656516, "activity_lines": [ 12.358, 12.174382, 12.754163, 13.38103 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.04, "volume": 51026781, "typical_volume": 41982194.45, "trend": 14.014382, "fair_value": 10.099767, "relative_strength": -3.933706, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.507355, "energy": 27.165325, "activity_lines": [ 12.320667, 12.137472, 12.628061, 13.252962 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }