{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e78e5d2-b7ec-42e3-bbe8-b06326b14f29", "symbol": "XRSU", "name": "Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.74, "architecture_energy": 50.962, "architecture_maturity": 61.4, "architecture_confidence": 80.699, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.48, "rotation_up": 43.52, "upward_expansion": 67.46, "deceleration": 88.04, "rotation_down": 27.57, "downward_expansion": 19.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 440.200657, 440.506266, 433.554807, 422.456924 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 448.859985, "trend_reference": 410.005501, "distance_from_trend": 0.094766, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 331.016601, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.356004, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.512452, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.146103, "excess_performance": 0.094868, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094766, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06228, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.356004, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026611, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.065125, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041301, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.146103, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.226483, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14012, "relative_activity": 1.447543, "balance": 0.226483, "dry_up": 2.103907, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023613, "annualized_volatility": 0.150508, "from_high_reference": -0.005957, "from_low_reference": 0.376322 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 410.005501, "fair_value_reference": 331.016601, "structural_low": 355.279999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.027826, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.014594, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.129742, "worst_return": -0.080699, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.038528, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.036324, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.225389, "worst_return": -0.187107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.107628, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.105553, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.171833, "worst_return": -0.007071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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442.525667, 435.990275, 420.614217, 410.930079 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 440.649994, "volume": 39090, "typical_volume": 10009.25, "trend": 401.625003, "fair_value": 327.012851, "relative_strength": 9.632872, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.089009, "energy": 82.835118, "activity_lines": [ 442.874998, 437.858819, 423.820526, 413.584917 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 437.829987, "volume": 48100, "typical_volume": 11928.2, "trend": 403.770002, "fair_value": 327.998204, "relative_strength": 7.625244, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.254935, "energy": 76.255721, "activity_lines": [ 441.314661, 438.751089, 426.528882, 415.920722 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 437.799988, "volume": 14709, "typical_volume": 11752.05, "trend": 405.856002, "fair_value": 328.971152, "relative_strength": 6.015415, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.997189, "energy": 58.397128, "activity_lines": [ 439.867991, 439.346905, 429.003833, 418.116205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 432.25, "volume": 4641, "typical_volume": 9396.65, "trend": 407.972835, "fair_value": 329.917691, "relative_strength": 3.153061, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.923711, "energy": 44.411001, "activity_lines": [ 436.789327, 438.493177, 430.647499, 419.819044 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 448.859985, "volume": 14012, "typical_volume": 9679.85, "trend": 410.005501, "fair_value": 331.016601, "relative_strength": 6.512452, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.740349, "energy": 50.961655, "activity_lines": [ 440.200657, 440.506266, 433.554807, 422.456924 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }