{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "5e7bf626-4e25-4a72-ba92-12f602b54574",
    "symbol": "EWI",
    "name": "iShares MSCI Italy ETF",
    "exchange": "MEX",
    "country": "MX",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^MXX",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 90.689,
    "architecture_energy": 75.318,
    "architecture_maturity": 49.476,
    "architecture_confidence": 76.607,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 17.92,
        "rotation_up": 68.48,
        "upward_expansion": 85.33,
        "deceleration": 64.46,
        "rotation_down": 22.81,
        "downward_expansion": 12.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        1015.309978
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 1084.599976,
    "trend_reference": 996.041872,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.08891,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 773.781142,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.401688,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 8.835635,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.118144,
    "excess_performance": 0.172811,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.08891,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030421,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.401688,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.06627,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.088356,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.139391,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.118144,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.226121,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 30,
      "relative_activity": 0.444444,
      "balance": 0.226121,
      "dry_up": 0.337037,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.013686,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.168955,
      "from_high_reference": -0.004954,
      "from_low_reference": 0.202321
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 996.041872,
      "fair_value_reference": 773.781142,
      "structural_low": 908.0,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 34,
        "median_return": 0.004423,
        "positive_rate": 0.558824,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.558824,
        "median_excess_return": 0.003565,
        "regime_survival": 0.823529,
        "best_return": 0.126617,
        "worst_return": -0.073634,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.032933,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000379,
        "regime_survival": 0.583333,
        "best_return": 0.130326,
        "worst_return": -0.061169,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.088812,
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        "median_excess_return": 0.029278,
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        "worst_return": -0.176146,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "worst_return": -0.331842,
        "sufficient": false
      }
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        "start": "2023-09-29",
        "end": "2023-11-03",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 1053.439941,
        "volume": 45,
        "typical_volume": 79.45,
        "trend": 990.457874,
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        "relative_strength": 6.678115,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 1053.439941,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 70.5,
        "trend": 992.958539,
        "fair_value": 770.346756,
        "relative_strength": 5.802799,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "energy": 85.327424,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 1084.599976,
        "volume": 30,
        "typical_volume": 67.5,
        "trend": 996.041872,
        "fair_value": 773.781142,
        "relative_strength": 8.835635,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 90.688747,
        "energy": 75.317548,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}