{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e7ff0e3-6edf-4f45-9ea7-f7f90e66d919", "symbol": "ARSHIYA", "name": "Arshiya Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.351, "architecture_energy": 85.187, "architecture_maturity": 42.33, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.17, "rotation_up": 17.45, "upward_expansion": 20.83, "deceleration": 37.65, "rotation_down": 73.67, "downward_expansion": 98.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.972667, 1.007273, 1.089048, 1.164624 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.96, "trend_reference": 1.245333, "distance_from_trend": -0.229122, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.604936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.733698, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.698783, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.244094, "excess_performance": -0.200385, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.229122, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086106, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.733698, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072231, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.336988, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065578, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.244094, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.262439, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2438938, "relative_activity": 3.545547, "balance": 0.262439, "dry_up": 1.73098, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082532, "annualized_volatility": 0.401554, "from_high_reference": -0.649635, "from_low_reference": 0.043478 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.245333, "fair_value_reference": 3.604936, "structural_low": 0.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 48, "median_return": -0.051094, "positive_rate": 0.354167, "directional_follow_through": 0.645833, "median_excess_return": -0.070439, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.616279, "worst_return": -0.368192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.15864, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.154991, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.734177, "worst_return": -0.464286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.352459, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.387595, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.658228, "worst_return": -0.541667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 1.282667, "fair_value": 3.692244, "relative_strength": -34.195075, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.274945, "energy": 78.495185, "activity_lines": [ 1.062, 1.102, 1.185905, 1.241699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.99, "volume": 794869, "typical_volume": 493801.15, "trend": 1.273, "fair_value": 3.6675, "relative_strength": -36.231679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.471119, "energy": 85.582097, "activity_lines": [ 1.036, 1.074, 1.159429, 1.222817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.95, "volume": 896638, "typical_volume": 538572.5, "trend": 1.264, "fair_value": 3.645385, "relative_strength": -35.608211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.543193, "energy": 88.371617, "activity_lines": [ 1.002667, 1.044909, 1.132095, 1.201978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.98, "volume": 632433, "typical_volume": 566439.95, "trend": 1.255, "fair_value": 3.625064, "relative_strength": -33.524017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.787674, "energy": 84.85996, "activity_lines": [ 0.988667, 1.025818, 1.110381, 1.183656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.96, "volume": 2438938, "typical_volume": 687887.6, "trend": 1.245333, "fair_value": 3.604936, "relative_strength": -33.698783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.351403, "energy": 85.18692, "activity_lines": [ 0.972667, 1.007273, 1.089048, 1.164624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }