{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e83f6fd-9945-4105-80b3-b8da7af1d810", "symbol": "600827", "name": "Shanghai Bailian (Group) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.204, "architecture_energy": 25.531, "architecture_maturity": 93.066, "architecture_confidence": 81.093, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.29, "rotation_up": 25.34, "upward_expansion": 14.71, "deceleration": 46.81, "rotation_down": 33.2, "downward_expansion": 62.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.721333, 7.668779, 7.846061, 8.027103 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.67, "trend_reference": 8.3138, "distance_from_trend": -0.077438, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.072268, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.154566, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.717628, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.160832, "excess_performance": -0.117628, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077438, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05245, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.154566, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047388, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117176, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029945, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.160832, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.798509, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77569480, "relative_activity": 1.559553, "balance": 0.798509, "dry_up": 1.55748, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060518, "annualized_volatility": 0.218705, "from_high_reference": -0.260366, "from_low_reference": 0.039295 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.3138, "fair_value_reference": 9.072268, "structural_low": 7.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.01507, "positive_rate": 0.424242, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": -0.017321, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 0.267196, "worst_return": -0.128681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.039914, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.073868, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.316761, "worst_return": -0.187019, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.001033, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.150861, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.310345, "worst_return": -0.214347, "sufficient": true }, { 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7.632561, 7.881242, 8.092798 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.07, "volume": 77052854, "typical_volume": 47739681.9, "trend": 8.3578, "fair_value": 9.101846, "relative_strength": -5.12297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.123302, "energy": 30.742146, "activity_lines": [ 7.710771, 7.687397, 7.881271, 8.071477 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.67, "volume": 77569480, "typical_volume": 49738292.65, "trend": 8.3138, "fair_value": 9.072268, "relative_strength": -11.717628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.204415, "energy": 25.531135, "activity_lines": [ 7.721333, 7.668779, 7.846061, 8.027103 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }