{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e884fc3-7077-4eae-8398-bfcd37c58bf1", "symbol": "CLNX", "name": "Cellnex Telecom, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 61.853, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.003, "architecture_energy": 33.098, "architecture_maturity": 26.536, "architecture_confidence": 71.917, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.87, "rotation_up": 21.7, "upward_expansion": 8.37, "deceleration": 59.43, "rotation_down": 45.5, "downward_expansion": 70.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.514875, 26.527863, 27.224363, 27.596946 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.559999, "trend_reference": 27.861546, "distance_from_trend": -0.010823, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.035237, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.111977, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.631059, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.004373, "excess_performance": -0.120058, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010823, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011012, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.111977, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002177, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.156311, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015978, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004373, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.380258, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5740321, "relative_activity": 1.038262, "balance": 1.380258, "dry_up": 1.279224, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055347, "annualized_volatility": 0.346173, "from_high_reference": -0.157444, "from_low_reference": 0.152174 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.861546, "fair_value_reference": 31.035237, "structural_low": 23.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.001533, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.025333, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.298864, "worst_return": -0.200182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.025432, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.086881, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.204916, "worst_return": -0.182285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.022465, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.119123, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.171286, "worst_return": -0.210674, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 25.683314, 26.73112, 27.486978, 27.795506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.940001, "volume": 10306941, "typical_volume": 5788887.75, "trend": 27.831136, "fair_value": 31.140638, "relative_strength": -19.59676, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.048175, "energy": 76.832037, "activity_lines": [ 25.562749, 26.472095, 27.302043, 27.672329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.93, "volume": 6687796, "typical_volume": 5719432.1, "trend": 27.827293, "fair_value": 31.085226, "relative_strength": -16.55254, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.570198, "energy": 67.43372, "activity_lines": [ 25.91113, 26.426706, 27.227346, 27.614191 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.559999, "volume": 5740321, "typical_volume": 5528777.15, "trend": 27.861546, "fair_value": 31.035237, "relative_strength": -15.631059, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.003399, "energy": 33.097974, "activity_lines": [ 26.514875, 26.527863, 27.224363, 27.596946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }