{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e92f71e-cdc1-44bd-830f-2e36dd1fe8c0", "symbol": "002289", "name": "Shenzhen Success Electronics Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.632, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.462, "architecture_energy": 32.044, "architecture_maturity": 56.865, "architecture_confidence": 61.86, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.24, "rotation_up": 16.73, "upward_expansion": 18.73, "deceleration": 69.88, "rotation_down": 63.02, "downward_expansion": 41.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.352, 37.161273, 38.296857, 36.324774 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 34.09, "trend_reference": 33.745333, "distance_from_trend": 0.010214, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.076218, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.261177, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.797948, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.233357, "excess_performance": 0.225958, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010214, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0626, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.261177, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.202962, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007979, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.287961, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.233357, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.628134, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29917803, "relative_activity": 1.938391, "balance": 0.628134, "dry_up": 1.9114, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.180044, "annualized_volatility": 0.644306, "from_high_reference": -0.331569, "from_low_reference": 0.653249 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.745333, "fair_value_reference": 15.076218, "structural_low": 24.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.007429, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.083756, "worst_return": -0.267791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.134831, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.169838, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.624365, "worst_return": -0.205773, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.227494, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.014734, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.502538, "worst_return": -0.211236, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071006, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.126761, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005305, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096447, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 7.916667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.23864, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082404, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.174781, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.152284, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.175517, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 5.13, "volume": 5210858, "typical_volume": 16663787.95, "trend": 7.226667, "fair_value": 8.090321, "relative_strength": -30.157561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"relative_strength": 1.739244, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.88785, "energy": 16.142285, "activity_lines": [ 38.521334, 40.445273, 39.195286, 36.595484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.0, "volume": 24376909, "typical_volume": 14361168.8, "trend": 33.581333, "fair_value": 14.890898, "relative_strength": -10.681234, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -13.153938, "energy": 26.642338, "activity_lines": [ 34.488667, 38.228546, 38.507953, 36.291957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.09, "volume": 29917803, "typical_volume": 15434351.05, "trend": 33.745333, "fair_value": 15.076218, "relative_strength": -0.797948, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.461872, "energy": 32.043943, "activity_lines": [ 33.352, 37.161273, 38.296857, 36.324774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }