{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e931d07-378a-49a8-843c-a1ecc86ced14", "symbol": "USBC34", "name": "U.S. Bancorp", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.192, "architecture_energy": 66.502, "architecture_maturity": 18.059, "architecture_confidence": 79.752, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.23, "rotation_up": 75.09, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 54.83, "rotation_down": 12.68, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.800002, 79.495467, 75.956856, 74.196963 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 81.040001, "trend_reference": 72.810017, "distance_from_trend": 0.113034, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 59.0945, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.371363, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.051899, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.038489, "excess_performance": 0.095537, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.113034, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044159, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.371363, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.156445, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.120519, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.246159, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038489, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 14.934307, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14845, "relative_activity": 14.541803, "balance": 14.934307, "dry_up": 3.875447, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035514, "annualized_volatility": 0.201322, "from_high_reference": -0.023967, "from_low_reference": 0.377461 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.810017, "fair_value_reference": 59.0945, "structural_low": 63.240002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.014276, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.024381, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.190402, "worst_return": -0.314236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.026909, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006079, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.156194, "worst_return": -0.400248, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.057652, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.199814, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.212132, "worst_return": -0.304714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"up", "direction": 85.914439, "energy": 94.250174, "activity_lines": [ 79.356908, 76.598019, 73.469919, 72.572836 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 81.040001, "volume": 552, "typical_volume": 315.15, "trend": 72.356217, "fair_value": 58.593123, "relative_strength": 11.266328, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.185481, "energy": 90.245051, "activity_lines": [ 80.266478, 77.858259, 74.389382, 73.147165 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 80.160004, "volume": 252, "typical_volume": 320.5, "trend": 72.571917, "fair_value": 58.840991, "relative_strength": 7.589245, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.5872, "energy": 81.568525, "activity_lines": [ 80.445335, 78.699227, 75.161735, 73.650635 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 81.040001, "volume": 14845, "typical_volume": 1020.85, "trend": 72.810017, "fair_value": 59.0945, "relative_strength": 12.051899, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.191969, "energy": 66.501984, "activity_lines": [ 80.800002, 79.495467, 75.956856, 74.196963 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }