{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e97db0e-8f17-4cf8-a692-685d400d298b", "symbol": "PABX", "name": "Amundi MSCI World Climate Paris Aligned UCITS ETF - Acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.808, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.67, "architecture_energy": 64.979, "architecture_maturity": 40.019, "architecture_confidence": 84.415, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.38, "rotation_up": 57.73, "upward_expansion": 81.54, "deceleration": 57.38, "rotation_down": 24.37, "downward_expansion": 10.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 105.826668, 105.083637, 104.225144, 102.437872 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 109.120003, "trend_reference": 100.554334, "distance_from_trend": 0.085184, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 79.63913, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.370181, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.147066, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.116203, "excess_performance": 0.051563, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085184, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023436, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.370181, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025488, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.021471, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058903, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.116203, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.84287, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2525, "relative_activity": 0.749959, "balance": 0.84287, "dry_up": 2.019246, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018498, "annualized_volatility": 0.147781, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.217993 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 100.554334, "fair_value_reference": 79.63913, "structural_low": 89.589996, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.013744, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.000494, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.044592, "worst_return": -0.023732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.028565, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.007959, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.082991, "worst_return": -0.039352, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.089962, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.066433, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.113927, "worst_return": 0.065997, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.187443, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.139856, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.187443, "worst_return": 0.187443, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.077854, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005614, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002357, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042199, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.09813, "energy": 46.8956, "activity_lines": [ 104.382669, 104.424728, 102.525382, 101.065291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 104.019997, "volume": 16996, "typical_volume": 3663.1, "trend": 99.912333, "fair_value": 79.067724, "relative_strength": 3.668796, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.519555, "energy": 44.666482, "activity_lines": [ 104.328, 104.363273, 102.882381, 101.342646 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 103.82, "volume": 3738, "typical_volume": 3542.1, "trend": 100.062667, "fair_value": 79.247088, "relative_strength": 2.199213, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.434655, "energy": 43.863321, "activity_lines": [ 104.206667, 104.258546, 103.191048, 101.594753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 104.260002, "volume": 3935, "typical_volume": 3507.45, "trend": 100.249, "fair_value": 79.427037, "relative_strength": 0.389739, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.487515, "energy": 42.642015, "activity_lines": [ 104.261334, 104.224364, 103.501715, 101.865549 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 109.120003, "volume": 2525, "typical_volume": 3366.85, "trend": 100.554334, "fair_value": 79.63913, "relative_strength": 2.147066, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.669647, "energy": 64.979277, "activity_lines": [ 105.826668, 105.083637, 104.225144, 102.437872 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }