{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e9ce4c1-c158-4b37-949d-6fd522ea99f1", "symbol": "S5EE", "name": "UBS S&P 500 ESG Elite UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.124, "architecture_energy": 46.519, "architecture_maturity": 68.779, "architecture_confidence": 94.892, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.72, "rotation_up": 34.65, "upward_expansion": 62.57, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 27.96, "downward_expansion": 26.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 2094.5, 2107.818182, 2061.45643, 1989.025488 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2136.75, "trend_reference": 1904.01501, "distance_from_trend": 0.122234, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1567.124998, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.363484, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.472644, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.222257, "excess_performance": 0.171022, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.122234, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070509, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.363484, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070252, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.084726, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001126, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.222257, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.352891, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 107775, "relative_activity": 1.078747, "balance": 4.352891, "dry_up": 0.949052, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026986, "annualized_volatility": 0.153017, "from_high_reference": -0.062973, "from_low_reference": 0.373056 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1904.01501, "fair_value_reference": 1567.124998, "structural_low": 1643.300049, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.008762, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.009253, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.054729, "worst_return": -0.065191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0059, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043489, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.179106, "worst_return": -0.136272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.068416, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.072835, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.195082, "worst_return": -0.040617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038342, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023793, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.071316, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017585, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00497, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023665, 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42.388925, "activity_lines": [ 2080.083333, 2102.204545, 2044.637383, 1973.278392 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2136.75, "volume": 107775, "typical_volume": 99907.6, "trend": 1904.01501, "fair_value": 1567.124998, "relative_strength": 8.472644, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.124438, "energy": 46.519483, "activity_lines": [ 2094.5, 2107.818182, 2061.45643, 1989.025488 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }