{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5e9ffa3c-e0f6-420f-9fd8-ccd80729df5f", "symbol": "SSO", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST PSHS ULT S&P 500", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.09, "architecture_energy": 48.971, "architecture_maturity": 50.565, "architecture_confidence": 87.296, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.36, "rotation_up": 53.58, "upward_expansion": 79.6, "deceleration": 60.37, "rotation_down": 24.83, "downward_expansion": 6.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.342, 67.575082, 66.548932, 64.310825 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 71.68, "trend_reference": 61.86415, "distance_from_trend": 0.158668, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.027905, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.557316, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.006121, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.217316, "excess_performance": 0.091691, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.158668, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054224, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.557316, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011274, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.080061, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003304, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.217316, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.42838, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17901851, "relative_activity": 0.946603, "balance": 2.42838, "dry_up": 0.801274, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048983, "annualized_volatility": 0.283203, "from_high_reference": -0.010217, "from_low_reference": 0.473963 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.86415, "fair_value_reference": 46.027905, "structural_low": 48.6308, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.02808, "positive_rate": 0.675676, "directional_follow_through": 0.675676, "median_excess_return": 0.011815, "regime_survival": 0.783784, "best_return": 0.12423, "worst_return": -0.137118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.061286, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.019733, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.189687, "worst_return": -0.146162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.138201, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.056807, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.292852, "worst_return": -0.324014, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 68.72, "volume": 14102029, "typical_volume": 20341590.3, "trend": 60.657933, "fair_value": 45.040813, "relative_strength": 6.966206, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.323923, "energy": 46.390239, "activity_lines": [ 67.079535, 66.961063, 64.525238, 62.593709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 66.52, "volume": 15694470, "typical_volume": 20246487.0, "trend": 60.952824, "fair_value": 45.278011, "relative_strength": 4.951673, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.108612, "energy": 39.973662, "activity_lines": [ 66.986464, 66.895682, 64.988145, 62.971907 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 65.67, "volume": 11446088, "typical_volume": 19448812.35, "trend": 61.166728, "fair_value": 45.506151, "relative_strength": 4.050459, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.091316, "energy": 35.497632, "activity_lines": [ 66.600667, 66.667932, 65.328985, 63.276241 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.99, "volume": 15571376, "typical_volume": 18995383.55, "trend": 61.467208, "fair_value": 45.751353, "relative_strength": 4.750472, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.311075, "energy": 36.996009, "activity_lines": [ 66.775333, 66.691624, 65.747114, 63.651936 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 71.68, "volume": 17901851, "typical_volume": 18911683.1, "trend": 61.86415, "fair_value": 46.027905, "relative_strength": 8.006121, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.090155, "energy": 48.971067, "activity_lines": [ 68.342, 67.575082, 66.548932, 64.310825 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }