{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ea9aa07-7d7d-4eca-ae5a-31fda86589cb", "symbol": "SOXL", "name": "Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.126, "architecture_energy": 23.06, "architecture_maturity": 65.523, "architecture_confidence": 73.935, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.65, "rotation_up": 14.62, "upward_expansion": 42.25, "deceleration": 87.59, "rotation_down": 46.74, "downward_expansion": 36.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 2358.125993, 2825.807251, 2970.014348, 2623.142446 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2407.0, "trend_reference": 2148.00298, "distance_from_trend": 0.120576, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1052.501877, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.286932, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 56.359292, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.250206, "excess_performance": 1.304872, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.120576, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.589147, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.286932, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.968481, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.563593, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.805078, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.250206, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.726756, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 294309, "relative_activity": 1.023772, "balance": 0.726756, "dry_up": 1.186361, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.36943, "annualized_volatility": 1.232806, "from_high_reference": -0.502789, "from_low_reference": 4.40838 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2148.00298, "fair_value_reference": 1052.501877, "structural_low": 716.719971, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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"activity_lines": [ 2450.853312, 2992.971245, 2990.985393, 2603.354487 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2407.0, "volume": 294309, "typical_volume": 287475.2, "trend": 2148.00298, "fair_value": 1052.501877, "relative_strength": 56.359292, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.125789, "energy": 23.05973, "activity_lines": [ 2358.125993, 2825.807251, 2970.014348, 2623.142446 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }