{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5eaef25f-cd29-4de1-9659-56d116eca36f", "symbol": "POCT", "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Power Buffer ETF - October", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.304, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.51, "architecture_energy": 81.53, "architecture_maturity": 41.934, "architecture_confidence": 80.937, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.24, "rotation_up": 66.55, "upward_expansion": 92.42, "deceleration": 46.85, "rotation_down": 24.94, "downward_expansion": 16.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.806967, 46.594718, 46.236331, 45.70241 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 47.2189, "trend_reference": 45.092433, "distance_from_trend": 0.047158, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.124596, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.176807, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.989372, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.066491, "excess_performance": -0.059134, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047158, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021088, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.176807, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003934, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049894, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003476, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066491, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.050179, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 307798, "relative_activity": 0.851931, "balance": 2.050179, "dry_up": 0.615793, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009224, "annualized_volatility": 0.065972, "from_high_reference": -0.001672, "from_low_reference": 0.122629 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.092433, "fair_value_reference": 40.124596, "structural_low": 42.28, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 50, "median_return": 0.008067, "positive_rate": 0.72, "directional_follow_through": 0.72, "median_excess_return": -0.006783, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.062716, "worst_return": -0.031516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.023008, "positive_rate": 0.823529, "directional_follow_through": 0.823529, "median_excess_return": -0.009966, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.051514, "worst_return": -0.013667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.055288, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.039363, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.082111, "worst_return": -0.057946, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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377385.95, "trend": 44.897803, "fair_value": 39.953705, "relative_strength": -2.511873, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.288778, "energy": 80.509892, "activity_lines": [ 46.463347, 46.343467, 45.932246, 45.439294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.75, "volume": 158064, "typical_volume": 363797.8, "trend": 44.992803, "fair_value": 40.037808, "relative_strength": -2.797746, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.455825, "energy": 80.938308, "activity_lines": [ 46.58334, 46.433102, 46.070127, 45.558791 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.2189, "volume": 307798, "typical_volume": 361294.5, "trend": 45.092433, "fair_value": 40.124596, "relative_strength": -4.989372, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.509583, "energy": 81.530329, "activity_lines": [ 46.806967, 46.594718, 46.236331, 45.70241 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }