{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5eb14f5a-27ba-4d1c-8dce-12039629e627", "symbol": "AMAT", "name": "Applied Materials, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.792, "architecture_energy": 28.521, "architecture_maturity": 75.829, "architecture_confidence": 92.311, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.89, "rotation_up": 23.58, "upward_expansion": 58.26, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 31.19, "downward_expansion": 21.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 466.703331, 489.40454, 457.728271, 422.737335 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 466.649994, "trend_reference": 377.742308, "distance_from_trend": 0.235366, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 206.225125, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.262818, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 32.970621, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.722451, "excess_performance": 0.548204, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.235366, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.323754, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.262818, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.198593, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.329706, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124552, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.722451, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.903656, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 866, "relative_activity": 1.861565, "balance": 0.903656, "dry_up": 2.241509, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112473, "annualized_volatility": 0.493229, "from_high_reference": -0.194737, "from_low_reference": 2.534172 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 377.742308, "fair_value_reference": 206.225125, "structural_low": 266.734913, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.053546, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.066321, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.134288, "worst_return": -0.051312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.039164, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.113538, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.378443, "worst_return": -0.114801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.233017, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.255489, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.179768, "worst_return": -0.115955, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005346, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054596, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.162637, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.04021, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052224, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018537, 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"fair_value": 197.594244, "relative_strength": 62.071679, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.537634, "energy": 88.309796, "activity_lines": [ 539.229989, 495.962353, 433.488855, 395.664791 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 463.950012, "volume": 1061, "typical_volume": 380.8, "trend": 354.629614, "fair_value": 199.803075, "relative_strength": 44.033836, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.167534, "energy": 66.120686, "activity_lines": [ 516.129997, 496.954015, 440.728894, 403.244857 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 481.299988, "volume": 1247, "typical_volume": 402.95, "trend": 363.350323, "fair_value": 202.026834, "relative_strength": 45.085733, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.774919, "energy": 56.403796, "activity_lines": [ 500.333329, 499.331812, 448.917099, 411.417139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 442.75, "volume": 997, "typical_volume": 429.1, "trend": 370.586641, "fair_value": 204.029296, "relative_strength": 31.743784, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.109813, "energy": 31.556562, "activity_lines": [ 475.573332, 492.813631, 452.526991, 416.539699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 466.649994, "volume": 866, "typical_volume": 465.2, "trend": 377.742308, "fair_value": 206.225125, "relative_strength": 32.970621, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.791807, "energy": 28.521113, "activity_lines": [ 466.703331, 489.40454, 457.728271, 422.737335 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }