{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5eb29045-8857-4289-b3c3-44640d57adb8", "symbol": "HINDCOMPOS", "name": "Hindustan Composites Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 49.445, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.716, "architecture_energy": 11.677, "architecture_maturity": 25.563, "architecture_confidence": 64.457, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.3, "rotation_up": 36.67, "upward_expansion": 61.1, "deceleration": 76.49, "rotation_down": 24.06, "downward_expansion": 15.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 426.986666, 427.910909, 427.877142, 424.75344 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 424.0, "trend_reference": 421.641666, "distance_from_trend": 0.005593, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 455.614952, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.06939, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.884084, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.036928, "excess_performance": 0.080637, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005593, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010765, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.06939, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098689, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018841, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081273, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.036928, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.272696, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17872, "relative_activity": 0.356124, "balance": 0.272696, "dry_up": 0.820614, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068079, "annualized_volatility": 0.4222, "from_high_reference": -0.229091, "from_low_reference": 0.22155 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 421.641666, "fair_value_reference": 455.614952, "structural_low": 347.100006, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.00846, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.010943, "regime_survival": 0.68, "best_return": 0.193068, "worst_return": -0.102845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.01683, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.037128, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.305107, "worst_return": -0.155, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.056198, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.029551, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.491729, "worst_return": -0.120228, 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19.094222, "activity_lines": [ 431.403333, 424.37909, 425.963332, 423.448816 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 434.850006, "volume": 96572, "typical_volume": 48850.05, "trend": 423.13, "fair_value": 454.954384, "relative_strength": 0.997043, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.008287, "energy": 26.833873, "activity_lines": [ 434.260002, 426.396364, 427.296904, 424.239247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 428.399994, "volume": 36455, "typical_volume": 50078.55, "trend": 422.618333, "fair_value": 455.249751, "relative_strength": 2.025429, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.531906, "energy": 29.391249, "activity_lines": [ 433.469999, 427.73909, 427.904999, 424.579246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 423.0, "volume": 13830, "typical_volume": 50225.0, "trend": 421.681666, "fair_value": 455.608951, "relative_strength": -1.58594, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.776067, "energy": 24.384836, "activity_lines": [ 430.443333, 427.952727, 427.930475, 424.60387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 424.0, "volume": 17872, "typical_volume": 50184.7, "trend": 421.641666, "fair_value": 455.614952, "relative_strength": -1.884084, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.71633, "energy": 11.676591, "activity_lines": [ 426.986666, 427.910909, 427.877142, 424.75344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }